After yesterday correction the EUR/USD rate was @ 1.3620 this morning; right before the data release it was down to 1.3533 (probably will be the min of today);
this movement may be seen as the possibility of some long position ready to cover...just in case;
the data was worst than the expectation, but somebody said: because of last week event, something occasional...not sure, maybe just a statistcal disturb;
anyway the PPI and the unemployment claims were clearly bullysh for the rate and that happend it went up to 1.3664 (probably the max of today);
tomorrow we expect some really important news from euro side and dollar side;
first in the morning the german GDP that account for almost half of all europe...it is expected to be down 3%...it was down 2.1%;
french GDP with german account 60% of all europe and later there will be also the italian one...
all the three are expected to be worse than last time; I am expecting a lot of nervosism right before the release of them; a worse than expected release may end in a violent bearish movement to 1.3420 or lower;
the morning will be completed with euro CPI release; this is expected to be better;
on US side 3 hour and half later will be released the CPI expected to be flat;
support and resistance at this point of the day: R1 1.3692; R2 1.3743; S1 1.3561; S2 1.3481
right now my expectation is that today movement will be correct before tomorrow morning probably per 61.8% @ 1.3591 to be clear;
here is my trading plan:
I will sell right now 3 unit of EUR/USD @ 1.3641; stop loss 1.3720
I will buy back one unit @ 1.3595;
I will buy back the second unit @ 1.3561;
I will leave the third unit in case of bigger bearish movement
have a good trading day :)
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