Thursday, June 11, 2009

EUR/USD June 11th

The pair is trading right now @ 1.4045; yesterday it went up to 1.4141 and down to 1.3914; the RSI is almost flat at 51 but the stochastic is turned bullish; the pair is also trading in the upper side of the bollinger band; no indication from Fibonacci this time.
the trend is still bullish; so if a continuation of the bullish trend will happen, it will probably be today; this mean that at some point we may see the rate going up to test 1.4340 area; it is 300 pips away; today we have a lot of news and I do not see it impossible; on the down side, we had a formation of an Head&Shoulder that didn't end in any movement...this may be the sign that the bears are not really strong and convinced; anyway a movement below 1.3980 may result in a downside movement with target 1.39 area;
To be clear right now I do not see a clear opportunity to trade;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4487; R21.4260; R1 1.4153; S1 1.3926; S2 1.3806; S3 1.3579

my trading plan:
I would sell now one unit @ 1.4040;
stop loss 1.4150 area;
target 1.3850 or 1.37 area;
or I would wait for the rate to go down 1.3980 and sell it for 1.3850 area;
or buy now, stop loss @ 1.3975 and take profit @ 1.4140 area;
depend if you feel more bullish or bearish or risk adverse;
I am still bearish.

have a good trading day

:D

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