The pair is trading @ 1.4193; yesterday it went up to 1.4291 and than down to 1.4119; now it is in the middle of that movement; it is a apparently strange, since there was no good reason for such retracement...or somebody had to sell high volumes and decided that 1.4290-1.4300 it's a good area to start that; now the big seller should be satisfied and the pair should go back to it's market value; the way the price went down all other times an high was made, in the last two month, it let me think that there are a lot of big traders that consider the 1.4300 area as a good point to go long $ vs EUR; the open interest was up yesterday, but I am not sure it makes a lot of sense since the pair went down fast; today we have some important data release, and it may confirm that a correction was needed, it is still not time for a higher rate, or they may show that the possibility for the pair to go higher is not that crazy;
in the 4H chart the pair is trading right below the EMA and the middle bollinger band; yesterday during the fall the pair went out of the lower bollinger band;the RSI is @ 52; and the stochastic is starting a bullish 4 hours; from a "Fibonacci perspective" the pair didn't touch 38% of the last up move and right now is crossing the 23% level; we are in no trading zone or in a zone I would call a "be really careful zone";
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4545; R2 1.4373; R1 1.4283; S1 1.4111; S2 1.4029; S3 1.3857
I am going to stay out of the market today also; I prefer to wait for more confirmation; the pair may go up to 1.45 in the next couple of week, I do not believe it may go further up; my long period view says that this pair before the end of 2009 will be back to 1.2500...so this may be the moment where it start going down; I think the chance of a bearish trend are really low, but I prefer to wait for more confirmation before collecting some more pips on the upside or make the big trade on the down side.
have a good trading day
:D
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