The pair is trading @ 1.4124; right now a bearish candle is on; yesterday after touch the high @ 1.4304 the pair went down to 1.4134; after that we had a retracement to to 1.4265 area and than to 1.4190 area and now it started it's way down again; today low was 1.4109 for the moment; as I did say yesterday, @ 1.4300 we probably have big seller of Eur/Usd; anyway today we have serious data release and so will be decided if for this [pair there is more space on the upside or the way back to 1.2500 will start today.
In the 4H chart considering the last clear movement (1.3823-1.4304) the pair is retraced 38% and this mean that it is probably gaining strange to pass the 1.4300 resistance; on the other hand the pair is trading below yesterday min and so it may follow down; 1.4050 may indicate the possibility of a new bearish trend start, so be really careful in that area if you hold a long position; right now the pair is trading below the lower bollinger band, so below the EMA, the RSI is @ 37 and the stochastic need a break, so a small correction, before a huge bearish movement (?). Today we are waiting for the German CPI, it is expected lower than last time (be really careful with this indicator); on the other side of the pair we have "Core durable goods orders m/m and later the beige book (do not ignore the last one, it may start a new trend, and it did in the past). So we have a day where everything may happen or just nothing and we'll continue ranging.
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4531; R2 1.4361; R1 1,4249; S1 1.4079; S2 1.4021; S3 1.3851;
My trading plan:
YOU should be short since yesterday;
I am short two units ( I shorted a second one @1.4167)
I will stay short waiting for 1.4134 to be break or not; we went lower today, but right now we are trading @ 1.4143...
take profit @ 1.4170
target 1.4050, and there the big decision: lower or back?
keep an eye on today data release.
have a good trading day
:D
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