Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Monday, October 31, 2011
eurusd Oct 31st end of day analysis
- the pair went erased last fiday bull and went below last friday low;
- next target 1.3675 area;
The pair started the day @ 1.4136 and was driven in a single direction down. After some great and expected support around 1.4000 the pair followed down to 1.3827 to trade now around 1.3850.
It is clear that the bulls failed and the bears will now get some support from the closing long posiitons.
Next target should be 1.3675 which is the mid bollinger band on the daily chart.
The Asia session should be determined from the support of the dollar...which may also confirm the bear movement of eurusd; If 1.3675 will be triggered we may see a retracement of the pair to 1.3400;
In the meantime a headline says that greek deficit expanded, that should clearly support the eurusd bear;
Tomorrow we have the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to be higher than last release: this should support the bear.
In case You would like to go long, don't forget to fix your stop loss @ 1.3675.
I will short now with a stopo loss @ 1.4000 and a target to 1.3400
Happy trading
more intervention on the yen?
A headline out of reuters says that option players are betting on more yen intervantion in the short term,
also if they did not see this intervention having a lasting impact.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
eurusd 31-04/Nov
- short opportunity;
- mid term bull trend;
- target 1.3800 with tight stop loss or buy lows with target 1.4550 for mid-long term trades;
Next week we will have some news release that will bring some volatility to the pair and also on Thursday we may see a 0.25% rate cut from ECB, which if will not happen should at least advise some long covering before Thursday.
Another sign that may suggest a long covering is the dramatic move that happened last Friday: around 350 pips in one single day, which will translate into a profit taking on each sign of nervousness.
1.4000 or around that area may be a good level to build a long position; or it may be a first target for whom may decide to short the pair.
Up to Thursday than it will be clear if will be better to old a short position or to go long and target 1.4550.
The only thing that will be certain is that there will be a lot of volatility.
Happy trading
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
eur/usd Oct 25th
Opportunity to sell now;
stop 1.4000
target 1.3700
aparently the meeting of eu ministers is cancelled;
the rate failed to continue over 1.3950;
and there is a clear possibility that it will go back to 1.3700 area.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Eurusd Oct 24th
eurusd Sell opportunity;
stop @ 1.3900;
target 1.3844;
on the daily chart the pair is trading the 50% resistance of the last bearish move;
we can see in the hourly chart that eurusd is trading close to the middle bollinger band, but is below it at the moment;
a clear failure to go through the middle bollinger band should be a clear sign to go short with a target to the low of current candlestick;
current eurusd quote is 1.3866;
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Eur/USD Mar 15th trading opportunity
The pair is trading @ 1.3911; Yesterday it went from a low of 1.3903 to a high of 1.4002;
Apparently no news drove the pair, except for the stories from Japan. the consequences of the tsunami will weight for sure on the energy prices, which haven't raised a lot so far, so we still have an opportunity to buy; after the nuclear plant trouble we saw yesterday the Germans saying that they may reduce the number of their nuclear plants. The energy consumption will not be reduced, it will simply come from something else like coal for example, I would not be surprised if this will trigger up all the energy commodities; All this facts are happening at the same time of an exceptional events in north Africa, in primis Libya unrest. If in the near term we should see the energy prices going up, in the medium term we should see an effect of all this environment on the European GDP which should slow down.
At the same time today Bernanke will review the bond-purchase program.
Technically we failed to break the wall of 1.4000 and now we are trading close to yesterday low. in Few hours the liquidity will be high and we should break the 1.3900; On the hourly chart I see that we are trading on the lower bollinger band and the RSI is oversold;
Here are some support and resistance:
Apparently no news drove the pair, except for the stories from Japan. the consequences of the tsunami will weight for sure on the energy prices, which haven't raised a lot so far, so we still have an opportunity to buy; after the nuclear plant trouble we saw yesterday the Germans saying that they may reduce the number of their nuclear plants. The energy consumption will not be reduced, it will simply come from something else like coal for example, I would not be surprised if this will trigger up all the energy commodities; All this facts are happening at the same time of an exceptional events in north Africa, in primis Libya unrest. If in the near term we should see the energy prices going up, in the medium term we should see an effect of all this environment on the European GDP which should slow down.
At the same time today Bernanke will review the bond-purchase program.
Technically we failed to break the wall of 1.4000 and now we are trading close to yesterday low. in Few hours the liquidity will be high and we should break the 1.3900; On the hourly chart I see that we are trading on the lower bollinger band and the RSI is oversold;
Here are some support and resistance:
R4 1.4236; R3 1.4137; R2 1.4038; R1 1.3975; S1 1.3876; S2 1.384; S3 1.3741; S4 1.3642. |
Monday, March 14, 2011
Eur/Usd Mar 14th
The pair is trading to 1.3940; this morning it went to 1.3980 after opening the week at 1.3965;
Clearly there is indecision among the bulls to buy further around 1.40 area. The energy complex this morning is trading down on the day and that should support the Dollar against the Euro. Later we have the industrial production m/m for Europe, which is seen up 0.4%, 0.1% higher than the previous one.
On the Libya front Qaddafi if strong and is winning against the "rebels"; if that will happened there will be a negative impact on European GDP which is the biggest oil importer from Libya. Would not be really aggressive if I say that the pair should be bearish in the medium term due to Libya.
Technically we are trading in the upper section of the Bollinger bands and we are approaching the medium band; I see the possibility for another test to 1.4000, or in case of hesitation a drop to 1.3860 will be probabilistic, and from there it may point down to the first support around 1.3800 area.
Here are some resistance and supports:
I would try to build a short position from here up to 1.4000 with a stop at 1.4040 and try to point down to 1.3860 or lower to 1.3796 which is the first support;
Note that Weber speaks around 1 pm London time...it is usually bullish for the euro, so be careful around that time.
Happy trading to all
Clearly there is indecision among the bulls to buy further around 1.40 area. The energy complex this morning is trading down on the day and that should support the Dollar against the Euro. Later we have the industrial production m/m for Europe, which is seen up 0.4%, 0.1% higher than the previous one.
On the Libya front Qaddafi if strong and is winning against the "rebels"; if that will happened there will be a negative impact on European GDP which is the biggest oil importer from Libya. Would not be really aggressive if I say that the pair should be bearish in the medium term due to Libya.
Technically we are trading in the upper section of the Bollinger bands and we are approaching the medium band; I see the possibility for another test to 1.4000, or in case of hesitation a drop to 1.3860 will be probabilistic, and from there it may point down to the first support around 1.3800 area.
Here are some resistance and supports:
| R4 1.4344; R3 1.4181; R2 1.4018; R1 1.3959; S1 1.3796; S2 1.3692; S3 1.3529; S4 1.3366. |
I would try to build a short position from here up to 1.4000 with a stop at 1.4040 and try to point down to 1.3860 or lower to 1.3796 which is the first support;
Note that Weber speaks around 1 pm London time...it is usually bullish for the euro, so be careful around that time.
Happy trading to all
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Eur/Usd Mar 14-18
The Pair started the week trading up to 1.4040 and than went down to 1.3753 last friday, to find some boost and regain area 1.3900;
In my view it already priced a possible ECB rate hike at 1.40 area, and than the pair went down probably on the fact that the energy prices were off from the high of the previous week, making the usd looking stronger than the Euro.
Last Friday main news was the Japanese quake and tsunami, also if the Euro went up on a renewed talk on rate hike.
For next week we should follow really close the evolution on the unrest in Libya and the japanese consequence on the world economy.
The consequesenque on what is happening in Libya will have an impact on the european GDP and so really soon we will see European economic stats deteriorating;
On the other side the consequences of what happened in japan should have an immediate effects on the costs of the energy, but that will not be limited to Europe only but to the all world.
In both cases we may see the inflation going up and so that will increse the probability of an imminent rate hike from ECB.
We are in a really tricky situation.
Here are some resistance and support to whatch for the next week:
It seems clear that next week we may see some volatility. the first target for the pair will be the 1.4040 area, but I see really unlike the possibility to test 1.4185 already next week, while in case of a bearish movement to 1.3756 I see possible a test to 1.3611 area.
Happy trading to all.
In my view it already priced a possible ECB rate hike at 1.40 area, and than the pair went down probably on the fact that the energy prices were off from the high of the previous week, making the usd looking stronger than the Euro.
Last Friday main news was the Japanese quake and tsunami, also if the Euro went up on a renewed talk on rate hike.
For next week we should follow really close the evolution on the unrest in Libya and the japanese consequence on the world economy.
The consequesenque on what is happening in Libya will have an impact on the european GDP and so really soon we will see European economic stats deteriorating;
On the other side the consequences of what happened in japan should have an immediate effects on the costs of the energy, but that will not be limited to Europe only but to the all world.
In both cases we may see the inflation going up and so that will increse the probability of an imminent rate hike from ECB.
We are in a really tricky situation.
Here are some resistance and support to whatch for the next week:
| R4 1.4759; R3 1.4472; R2 1.4185; R1 1.4043; S1 1.3756; S2 1.3611; S3 1.3324; S4 1.3037. |
It seems clear that next week we may see some volatility. the first target for the pair will be the 1.4040 area, but I see really unlike the possibility to test 1.4185 already next week, while in case of a bearish movement to 1.3756 I see possible a test to 1.3611 area.
Happy trading to all.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Eur/Usd Mar 1st
The pair is trading @ 1.3812; today it went from 1.3787 to 1.3855. it was clearly bought on dips and lost momentum on reistance level.
It went down to 1.3812 from high on Bernanke speach.
It will be probably bought on dips once again.
Oil is high on the day, but it looks like the main factor driving the pair is Trichet conference next thursday. So up to that moment seems that nothing will happened.
Here are some resisnce and support:
| R2 1.3948; R1 1.388; S1 1.3781; S2 1.375. |
I still believe that on the upside there aren't much pips while on the downside we have at least 400 easy pips, if trichet will say something bearish...
so I will try to sell high and play it next thursday.
At the moment out of any position.
Happy trading
Monday, February 28, 2011
Eur/Usd Feb 28th
The pair is trading @ 1.3837; today went from a low of 1.3710 to a high of 1.3855.
Traders are betting on some sign from trichet next thursday that will give an indication of an imminent rate hike.
The trend is bullish, I see next resistance @ 1.3867 and after that 1.4000. If the rate hike expectation will not be confirmed clearly the pair is set to fall down to 1.3400. Today all the available econ stats are published, they are a little bit in favour of the Euro against the dollar. On the energy side I see the wti weaker than the brent. This last indicator is proabbly in favour of the dollar.
I do not see a huge upside, While i see a lot of space on the downside, so I will sit and wait for a good opportunity to sell.
Happy trading
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Eur/Usd Feb 28-04
The pair has close the week @ 1.3754, trading from a low of 1.3526 to a high of 1.3838. the main driver of last week were based on two main factors: the possibility the ECB will hike the interest rate sooner than the FED and the Libyan unrest which is pushing energy prices higher and is causing some risk into the market.
For what concern the possibility for the ECB to hike the interest rate sooner than the FED to fight inflation I would also consider that the US has a higher grow than Europe and has also higher inflation, which in currency is a perfect substitute of the interest rate.
The Libyan unrest is a more complicated factor. First it looks like that higher oil price makes the dollar bearish as US is a net importer of oil...but the Libyan unrest is should weight more on the Brent than wti, so should have no big impact on the dollar from this perspective and should weigh heavily on the euro; From another perspective it looks like the dollar have lost the status of risk aversion currency...I am not sure on this, I just think during last week there was some confusion in the market.
If the Libyan unrest will continue or will be considered to continue for at least next two three weeks, it will make a return to normality really long and this will be bullish for the dollar and at the same time bearish for the euro.
If the Libyan unrest will end soon and Qaddafi will loose things will still be more bullish for the dollar than the euro, but we need to understand what will happened.
If the Libyan unrest will end soon with Qaddafi victory than the dollar will make a big move against the euro.
I believe in all three Libyan scenario the dollar will perform better than the euro, for the simple equation that the Brent will get more expensive than the wti and so European economy will be impacted more than the US one.
for what concern the possibility the the Saudi Arabia may produce more output to replace Libyan disruption, well Saudi oil is different from Libyan one and I am not sure it's a good replacement for all the refineries that were being supplied from Libya.
I think the best indicator for the EuroUsd next week will be the spread between us oil benchmark (wti) and European oil benchmark (Brent).
Next Thursday there will be the ECB press conference...will be really important to follow what Trichet will say. If will look clear an imminent interest rate hike, well than the usd will go to test 1.4000 without doubt. Up to Thursday the Libyan and it's consequence on grow and energy prices will have the main role in driving the pair.
Happy trading.
For what concern the possibility for the ECB to hike the interest rate sooner than the FED to fight inflation I would also consider that the US has a higher grow than Europe and has also higher inflation, which in currency is a perfect substitute of the interest rate.
The Libyan unrest is a more complicated factor. First it looks like that higher oil price makes the dollar bearish as US is a net importer of oil...but the Libyan unrest is should weight more on the Brent than wti, so should have no big impact on the dollar from this perspective and should weigh heavily on the euro; From another perspective it looks like the dollar have lost the status of risk aversion currency...I am not sure on this, I just think during last week there was some confusion in the market.
If the Libyan unrest will continue or will be considered to continue for at least next two three weeks, it will make a return to normality really long and this will be bullish for the dollar and at the same time bearish for the euro.
If the Libyan unrest will end soon and Qaddafi will loose things will still be more bullish for the dollar than the euro, but we need to understand what will happened.
If the Libyan unrest will end soon with Qaddafi victory than the dollar will make a big move against the euro.
I believe in all three Libyan scenario the dollar will perform better than the euro, for the simple equation that the Brent will get more expensive than the wti and so European economy will be impacted more than the US one.
for what concern the possibility the the Saudi Arabia may produce more output to replace Libyan disruption, well Saudi oil is different from Libyan one and I am not sure it's a good replacement for all the refineries that were being supplied from Libya.
I think the best indicator for the EuroUsd next week will be the spread between us oil benchmark (wti) and European oil benchmark (Brent).
Next Thursday there will be the ECB press conference...will be really important to follow what Trichet will say. If will look clear an imminent interest rate hike, well than the usd will go to test 1.4000 without doubt. Up to Thursday the Libyan and it's consequence on grow and energy prices will have the main role in driving the pair.
Happy trading.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Eur/Usd Feb 25th
The pair is trading @ 1.3831, yesterday it went from 1.3703 to 1.3837; the reason should be that the dollar it's not a low risk investment anymore, since investor prefer swissy or Japanese yes; on the other side it looks also clear that the ECB will hike the interest rate much earlier than the FED. No comment on this. In Libya the situation is really bad right now, yesterday we saw the oil going up, almost to 120$ and than going back and closing the day basically unchanged form one day before...not sure about the reason of that, to me was clear that was going up and should have gone higher. For sure there is a lot of volatility.
This morning I am reading that Morgan Stanley is cutting it's forecast for the dollar and so it is putting it's eurusd forecast for end of march @ 1.32 from 1.25 and end of year @ 1.24 from 1.20...so we are overstated according to MS.
Technically we are trading on the upper bollinger band and the pair is bullish and closed up last three session, also if I believe the resistance @ 1.3860 will not be broken. In the last three days the pair closed higher, but never gained a consistent amount of pips to say there was a consistent movement.
Today econ stats include German preliminary CPI, french consumer spending and M3 money supply, from US preliminary GDP, which should not give nay surprises.
Here are some support and resistance:
I will try again to go short,
selling now
stop loss 1.3877 (so risk less than 50 pips)
target 1.3744 and if there are some good econ stats will play 1.3657.
Happy trading
This morning I am reading that Morgan Stanley is cutting it's forecast for the dollar and so it is putting it's eurusd forecast for end of march @ 1.32 from 1.25 and end of year @ 1.24 from 1.20...so we are overstated according to MS.
Technically we are trading on the upper bollinger band and the pair is bullish and closed up last three session, also if I believe the resistance @ 1.3860 will not be broken. In the last three days the pair closed higher, but never gained a consistent amount of pips to say there was a consistent movement.
Today econ stats include German preliminary CPI, french consumer spending and M3 money supply, from US preliminary GDP, which should not give nay surprises.
Here are some support and resistance:
| R4 1.4189; R3 1.4056; R2 1.3923; R1 1.3877; S1 1.3744; S2 1.3657; S3 1.3524; S4 1.3391. |
I will try again to go short,
selling now
stop loss 1.3877 (so risk less than 50 pips)
target 1.3744 and if there are some good econ stats will play 1.3657.
Happy trading
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Eur/Usd Feb 24th
The pair is trading around 1.3735 and is falling down since the last hour. Yesterday it went from 1.3682 to 1.3785 to close @ 1.3775.
The main argument that explain the rise of the Euro against the dollar is that the north Africa crisis will boost energy prices, especially the Brent and so will impact on the European inflation. Now because for the ECB is mandatory to keep inflation below 2% they will increase the interest rate to contain the inflation.
My point is that inflation from a problem on the supply side is not the same as inflation from strong demand due to an excess of liquidity. I am not sure what is more important between containing the inflation and not killing the demand or the grow. Increasing the interest rate will have an effect on the inflation only reducing the demand and killing the grow...I am sure nobody want it, as I am sure nobody will hike interest rate soon, just rumors.
The possible scenario about the Libyan crisis make clear that it will not be resolved soon unless Gaddafi step down, but He made clear that will not step down and prefer to die as a martyr, so let's assume that the libyan instability will be really long and energy prices will go further up.
Technically we are trading close to the upper bollinger band, but the RSI is declining. Yesterday the pair managed to go over the 1.3720-1.3750 area, considered an important resistance, but didn't go far away and right now is back at 1.3735. A return to 1.3710 may push the pair down to 1.3650-1.3635. while on the other side the resistance have to move up probably 1.3812? will see today.
Here are some support and resistance:
Today we will have the Core Durable Goods Order, Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales, so let's pay attention, the market will move for sure, and a bad news here will push the pair really high.
As the pair is moving down, I have sold here, and will close before the economic stats came out, unless I have enough pips to play the stats.
Happy trading
The main argument that explain the rise of the Euro against the dollar is that the north Africa crisis will boost energy prices, especially the Brent and so will impact on the European inflation. Now because for the ECB is mandatory to keep inflation below 2% they will increase the interest rate to contain the inflation.
My point is that inflation from a problem on the supply side is not the same as inflation from strong demand due to an excess of liquidity. I am not sure what is more important between containing the inflation and not killing the demand or the grow. Increasing the interest rate will have an effect on the inflation only reducing the demand and killing the grow...I am sure nobody want it, as I am sure nobody will hike interest rate soon, just rumors.
The possible scenario about the Libyan crisis make clear that it will not be resolved soon unless Gaddafi step down, but He made clear that will not step down and prefer to die as a martyr, so let's assume that the libyan instability will be really long and energy prices will go further up.
Technically we are trading close to the upper bollinger band, but the RSI is declining. Yesterday the pair managed to go over the 1.3720-1.3750 area, considered an important resistance, but didn't go far away and right now is back at 1.3735. A return to 1.3710 may push the pair down to 1.3650-1.3635. while on the other side the resistance have to move up probably 1.3812? will see today.
Here are some support and resistance:
| R4 1.4053; R3 1.3951; R2 1.3849; R1 1.3812; S1 1.371; S2 1.3645; S3 1.3543; S4 1.3441. |
Today we will have the Core Durable Goods Order, Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales, so let's pay attention, the market will move for sure, and a bad news here will push the pair really high.
As the pair is moving down, I have sold here, and will close before the economic stats came out, unless I have enough pips to play the stats.
Happy trading
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Eur/Usd Feb 23rd
The pair traded from 1.3526 to 1.3703 during yesterday. The main driver of the day were the Libyan unrest and a talk on a possible rate rise from ECB.
So it happened that the euro went to touch his day low on Libya unrest, and than recovered something like 180 pips as some ECB officials start talking about the opportunity to rise interest rate to avoid inflation. I am not sure this is real, an increase of the interest rates now may affect negatively the so called PIGS. Gaddafi had a speech on TV and was a really aggressive one, as he stressed that will not step down, and prefer to die as a martyr.
Technically we are trading on the upper bollinger band and I see the RSI in overbought.
Right now we are trading @ 1.3722, it is a really interesting level, as I believe we have a strong resistance in this area up to 1.3750. If the market learn to trade the facts and avoid the rumors well it will go down to 1.3550 area again. On the other side a possible break over 1.3750 will target 1.4000 and 1.4270 will be next.
Here are some support and resistance:
So I would sell here with a stop loss at 1.3762 (clear break of 1.3720-1.3750 area)
target 1.3574
Happy trading to everybody
So it happened that the euro went to touch his day low on Libya unrest, and than recovered something like 180 pips as some ECB officials start talking about the opportunity to rise interest rate to avoid inflation. I am not sure this is real, an increase of the interest rates now may affect negatively the so called PIGS. Gaddafi had a speech on TV and was a really aggressive one, as he stressed that will not step down, and prefer to die as a martyr.
Technically we are trading on the upper bollinger band and I see the RSI in overbought.
Right now we are trading @ 1.3722, it is a really interesting level, as I believe we have a strong resistance in this area up to 1.3750. If the market learn to trade the facts and avoid the rumors well it will go down to 1.3550 area again. On the other side a possible break over 1.3750 will target 1.4000 and 1.4270 will be next.
Here are some support and resistance:
| R4 1.4207; R3 1.4019; R2 1.3831; R1 1.3762; S1 1.3574; S2 1.3455; S3 1.3267; S4 1.3079. |
So I would sell here with a stop loss at 1.3762 (clear break of 1.3720-1.3750 area)
target 1.3574
Happy trading to everybody
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Eur/Usd Feb 22nd
The Pair is currently trading around 1.3590, more or less 100 pips below yesterday morning at this time. I have never saw the eurusd moving 100 pips at midnight London time, interesting. The reason may be the fact that yesterday was a US holiday and so there was no enough liquidity to push the pair down, also if it was clear that with all the Libyan bad news it should have been down.
The other stories yesterday were the possibility for the euro-zone to increase the interest rate.
technically the pair is trading close to the low bollinger band, and is 50 pips away from last low.
if the Libyan situation will not end soon the pair should easily go to test 1.3400 support.
Here are some resistance and support:
R4 1.4059; R3 1.3913; R2 1.3767; R1 1.3679; S1 1.3533; S2 1.3475; S3 1.3329; S4 1.3183.
lafenice yesterday made money on his first trade, today I have no position on the moment, will follow close the day to spot some opportunity.
Happy trading everybody.
The other stories yesterday were the possibility for the euro-zone to increase the interest rate.
technically the pair is trading close to the low bollinger band, and is 50 pips away from last low.
if the Libyan situation will not end soon the pair should easily go to test 1.3400 support.
Here are some resistance and support:
R4 1.4059; R3 1.3913; R2 1.3767; R1 1.3679; S1 1.3533; S2 1.3475; S3 1.3329; S4 1.3183.
lafenice yesterday made money on his first trade, today I have no position on the moment, will follow close the day to spot some opportunity.
Happy trading everybody.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Eur/USD Feb 21st
The pair is unchanged to far in this start of the week. If we closed last week with some worries about the time the FED will increase it's interest rate, we are starting this week with some worries about the EU nations debt and their ability to face it.
Spanish debt yields have risen recently and this is a fact that will weight on the Euro during this week.
Today it is bank holiday in US but we have some stats from EUR: manufacturing and services PMI for French and Germany, plus the German Ifo Business climate.
Here are some support and resistance to watch today:
R4 1.4157; R3 1.3988; R2 1.3819; R1 1.3756; S1 1.3587; S2 1.3481; S3 1.3312; S4 1.3143.
I still believe that to have a confirmation of the Bull movement we need to break over area 1.3720-1.3750, I fix the first resistance at 1.3756;
while to see a bear momentum we need to break below 1.3587.
I will play the range during this week, as far as it will make sense.
right now "lafenice" account is not visible yet, but in the next 2-3 weeks it will be visible so you will be able to see my real time trades, or to link your account to mine, to trade in real time with me.
I have short @ 1.3681 with a target of 50 pips, also 50 pips stop loss.
Happy trading to all
Spanish debt yields have risen recently and this is a fact that will weight on the Euro during this week.
Today it is bank holiday in US but we have some stats from EUR: manufacturing and services PMI for French and Germany, plus the German Ifo Business climate.
Here are some support and resistance to watch today:
R4 1.4157; R3 1.3988; R2 1.3819; R1 1.3756; S1 1.3587; S2 1.3481; S3 1.3312; S4 1.3143.
I still believe that to have a confirmation of the Bull movement we need to break over area 1.3720-1.3750, I fix the first resistance at 1.3756;
while to see a bear momentum we need to break below 1.3587.
I will play the range during this week, as far as it will make sense.
right now "lafenice" account is not visible yet, but in the next 2-3 weeks it will be visible so you will be able to see my real time trades, or to link your account to mine, to trade in real time with me.
I have short @ 1.3681 with a target of 50 pips, also 50 pips stop loss.
Happy trading to all
Sunday, February 20, 2011
EUR/USD 21-25/FEB
Hi all,
here I am, back.
the pair last week went from 1.3420 to 1.3720. Also if it was trading for most of the week between 1.3450 and 1.3550, during last few hours Friday it rallied 150 pips to close @ 1.3693.
Apparently the main reason for the rally was the perception that the FED will not increase the interest rate really soon, against the fact that the EU may do it due to an increasing inflation.
Here are some resistance and support point for next week:
R4 1.4511; R3 1.4211; R2 1.3911; R1 1.3802; S1 1.3502; S2 1.3311; S3 1.3011; S4 1.2711.
Clearly a fail in breaking 1.3720-1.3750 area will send the pair back to test the first support.
No strategies for today, but will show some really soon.
Good luck everybody.
here I am, back.
the pair last week went from 1.3420 to 1.3720. Also if it was trading for most of the week between 1.3450 and 1.3550, during last few hours Friday it rallied 150 pips to close @ 1.3693.
Apparently the main reason for the rally was the perception that the FED will not increase the interest rate really soon, against the fact that the EU may do it due to an increasing inflation.
Here are some resistance and support point for next week:
R4 1.4511; R3 1.4211; R2 1.3911; R1 1.3802; S1 1.3502; S2 1.3311; S3 1.3011; S4 1.2711.
Clearly a fail in breaking 1.3720-1.3750 area will send the pair back to test the first support.
No strategies for today, but will show some really soon.
Good luck everybody.
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