Eur/USD Mar 15th trading opportunity

The pair is trading @ 1.3911; Yesterday it went from a low of 1.3903 to a high of 1.4002;
Apparently no news drove the pair, except for the stories from Japan. the consequences of the tsunami will weight for sure on the energy prices, which haven't raised a lot so far, so we still have an opportunity to buy; after the nuclear plant trouble we saw yesterday the Germans saying that they may reduce the number of their nuclear plants. The energy consumption will not be reduced, it will simply come from something else like coal for example, I would not be surprised if this will trigger up all the energy commodities; All this facts are happening at the same time of an exceptional events in north Africa, in primis Libya unrest. If in the near term we should see the energy prices going up, in the medium term we should see an effect of all this environment on the European GDP which should slow down.
At the same time today Bernanke will review the bond-purchase program.
Technically we failed to break the wall of 1.4000 and now we are trading close to yesterday low. in Few hours the liquidity will be high and we should break the 1.3900; On the hourly chart I see that we are trading on the lower bollinger band and the RSI is oversold;
Here are some support and resistance:

R4 1.4236; R3 1.4137; R2 1.4038; R1 1.3975; S1 1.3876; S2 1.384; S3 1.3741; S4 1.3642. Yesterday strategy to build a short position up to 1.4000 was a good idea, right now we are stuck before 1.3900 which I do not see as a support; I will reduce by half my position so I will realize some profit and I will play the other half with a target to 1.3740 area and a stop loss at 1.4040; Happy trading to all