GBP/USD May 22nd

The rate is trading @ 1.5870; yesterday High 1.5896; low 1.5516; close @ 1.5853;
In light of yesterday correction to 1.5510 area around 70% of the bullish movement of the day before, I was expecting the pair to move at least to 1.5980-1.6000 area; this didn't happened; so today I will play on correction and major trend movement; I think that we should experiment at least a correction to area 1.5780-1.5800 before a movement vs area 1.6000; I see it to risky to bet on a continuation on the bullish side, since the fail yesterday to perform area 1.600 may bring to a major correction of the main trend;
Here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.6515; R2 1.6135; R1 1.5994; S1 1.5614; S2 1.5375; S3 1.4995;

here is my trading plan;
I will sell 2x unit of GBP/USD right now @ 1.5870; stop loss @ 1.5910;
I will take profit 1.5780-1.5800 area;
and than I will go long 2x unit where I close the short posiition;
stop loss 1.5695;
take profit close to 1.6000;

have a good trading day
:D

please if any comment good one or bad one, do not esitate.

May 21st EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD
the rate is trading right now @ 1.3770; yesterday low 1.3583; high 1.3828;
what exactly happened is that the rate break the resistance @ 1.3720 area and now it is trading 50 pips higher; today some banks in Europe will be close, due to an holiday; so I am not expecting big volatility; right now 1.3770 rapresent a retarcement of 23%; 1.3730 area rapresent 38%; I will play to capture a retracement.
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4224;
R2 1.3979;
R1 1.3884; (make attention to this first resistence it's 1.3884)
S1 1.3639;
S2 1.3489;
S3 1.3244.

my trading plan of the day is:
I will sell 2 unit of EUR/USD @ 1.3775, right now;
stop loss @ 1.3828
take profit @ 1.3680 or much before, depend on the evolution of the rate during the day.

GBP/USD
it is trading right now @ 1.5766; yesterday low 1.5449; high 1.5815;
the rate is bullish and may go further up; but first will need a new support...
well a good new support for the next "bullish explosion" may be @ 1.5600 area and that looks interesting to me; @ 1.5683 we have a 38% retracement of yesterday movement...
here are some supports and resistance:
R3 1.6409;
R2 1.6043;
R1 1.5904;
S1 1.5538;
S2 1.5311;
S3 1.4945;

here is my trading plan:
I will sell 2x unit of GBP/USD @ 1.5778 (right now)
stop loss @ 1.5820
I will buy back 1x unit @ 1.5683;
I will buy back 1x unit @ 1.56 area;

have a good trading day;
:D

EUR/USD and GBP/USD May 20th update

EUR/USD it's really strong; today low 1.3583; high 1.3828 it's a 250 pips...right now it is @ 1.3767; it will probably retrace @ 1.3726... If you have respect for this market I am sure You will think carefully about take any position.
the rate is really strong, but right now I think there will be a retracement, the problem is to understnad when, and how big;
anyway selling it with a stop loss @ 1.3828 area would not be a bad idea, the retracement may end @ 1.3670 area; anyway I would take a really small position or stay out for the moment, since the high volatility may be painfull;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4216;
R2 1.3971;
R1 1.3869;
S1 1.3624;
S2 1.3481;
S3 1.3236.

my trading plan is:
I will sell 1 unit of EUR/USD now @ 1.3772; stop loss 1.3830; take profit @ 1.3670.


GBP/USD it is probably stronger the EUR/USD, today low was 1.5449, high was 1.5792 it is 350 pips; right now it is 1.5750;
it is bullish, but in my opinion it went up to fast, probably in the next hours we will assist at a correction to area 1.5550;
I will wait for a pause in this bullish movemet and I will be short with a small position to try to capture the correction.

here are some support and resistance:
R2 1.6006
R1 1.5877
S1 1.5534
S2 1.5320

my trading plan is:
if in the next 30 min the rate will not move up and will stay in area 1.5740-15760;
I will sell 1x unit; stop loss 1.58; take profit @ 1.5534;

have a good trading :D

May 20th EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD is trading @ 1.3592; yesterday High 1.3667, low 1.3537;
right now the rate is moving down from 1.3667 (it's max) with a correction of around 30%;
I see a good support @ 1.3570 area, If the rate will fail it I see a bullish movement to area 1.3720; after 1.3570 I see another support @ 1.3540;
a good strategy may be to sell around @ 1.3700, stop loss @ 1.3745, take profit @ 1.3650;
not big space for a trade...
here some support and resistance: R3 1.3866; R2 1.3736; R1 1.3675; S1 1.3545; S2 1.3476;
no need of S3 ;)


GBP/USD is trading @ 1.5481; yeasterday high was 1.5522; low 1.5324;
the bullish scenario is still on and the rate could easily go further up to check the resistance @ 1.5600, anyway I do not think this may happend today; in may opinion it is possible that today we experiment a correction probably to 1.5260 so ower than yesterday...

here some support and resistance:
R2 1.5640; R1 1.5560; S1 1.5362; S2 1.5244;

here is my plan:
I will sell 1 unit of GBP/USD @1.5480 (right now);
stop loss 1.5560;
take profit 1.5260.

have a good trading day

EUR/USD May 19th update

The rate is trading @ 1.3632; today it moved from a low @1.3537 to a high @ 1.3667;
right now I do not see any clear opportunity to trade; the rate may move up to 1.3700 and so will go to check the resistance @ 1.3720-40; or it may move down to 1.3570 or further to 1.3540; tomorrow news should not have a big impact on the rate; so to me looks much more possible it will go to 1.3720 area;
here are some support and resistance:
R1 1.3689;
R2 1.3743;
R3 1.3873;
S1 1.3559;
S2 1.3483;
S3 1.3353;

will see the overnight developement and maybe tomorrow there will be some more clear possibilty of trading, right now my trading plan is: no positions.
have a good rest :D

May 19th EUR/USD analysis and opportunities

Yesterday the rate moved from a min @ 1.3469 to a max @ 1.3569; it close at it's max.
early this morning there was a small correction almost 23%, so I would consider that we didn't had any since this movement up started;
right now this movement up may be seen as a 70% correction of last friday bearish movement; 1.3600 is also a good support; psycologic and because it was the max of the last retracement in friday trend.

some support and resistence: R1 1.3502; R21.3435; S1 1.3602; S3 1.3635

It seems really difficult that the rate will go further over 1.3600; once there the possibility it will fail to break it are high enough to bet on a retracement.

here is my trading plan:
I sell 2x units of EUR/USD right now @ 1.3594; stop loss @ 1.3630 (apparently tight but rappresent the event that 1.3600 will be passed);
I will by back 1x unit @1.3540;
I will buy back 1x unit @ 1.3480;
I do not see for today the possibility to go lower than 1.3420

May 18th EUR/USD trading opportunity update

The EUR/USD opened this week @ 1.3484 and went straight down to 1.3423;
after that it made a correction to 1.3473: around 23% of the last bearish movement;
I do not see a clear opportunity; it may move down to 1.3420 again and try to break it or it my go up for a correction @ 1.3559;
my trading plan is clearly changed:
I didn't open any new position so far;
I have close 3x of the 6x units I have opened last friday;
I am going to take profit every 50 pips for each unit; 1.3450(right now); 1.34 and 1.3350.
If there will an up movement before I close all my position I my consider to short a couple of unit @ 1.3550-1.3560 with a really tight stop loss, probably @ 1.3610, with a target @ 1.3430 in that case.

have a goodtrading :D

May 18th EUR/USD trading opportunity

On monday no big news are coming out; so if I quick look at the tecnical analysis it says that last friday after a bad news on the Euro side the rate went down from 1.3640 to 1.3520 to correct to 1.3610...that was 76.4% it went down to 1.3466 after that;

the closing price was 1.3492. I see tthe current scenario: the rate will open @ 1.3492 and will go up to 135.10 or upper to 1.3533 and than will ride down to 1.3400;
some support and resistance: R1 1.3603; R2 1.3715; 1.3898; S1 1.3420; S2 1.3349; S3 1.3166;

here is my trading plan:

I will sell 1 unit of EUR/USD at the opening if it is above 1.3460; stop loss 1.3610
I will sell 1 unit @ 1.3507 stop loss 1.3610;
I will sell 1 unit @ 1.3533; stop loss 1.3610;
I will buy back @ 1.3420 or lower: I will check the market developement.

Have a good trading day :D

Opportunity traders in comparison with technical and fundamental traders

What's an opportunity trader? An opportunity trader is a trader that looks at the market to determine when there is a distortion; the market is run by humans and the consequence is that it is not perfect; it is really often subject to distortions and those distortions represent the right opportunity for a trader to make some money betting on the event that the market will cross its equilibrium;
The recognized method used to analyse the markets are technical and fundamental analysis, the problem is that they both are used to try to predict future price movements...while they should be used only to analyse what happened.
Fundamental analysis is the study of the macroeconomics indicator to explain what happened in the market and to try to see in which direction the market may move.
Technical analysts says that it is impossible to properly understand the market movement from the fundamentals of that market, first because it is impossible to know everything and second because of the gap of time from when the news is made to the time the news reach most of us. So what technical analysts do is considering the price as the unique fundamental of the market.
Since the price discounts everything they try to explain what happened while looking at the price movements and from that they also try to predict the future price movements of a market.
Have you seen what happened two weeks ago on the EUR/USD rate? Briefly after some not really good news for the Euro and the news that the European central bank was going to inject 60 billion liquidity, the Euro rallied...is that what fundamental traders were expecting? Look at March 16th; there was the same announcement from the FED...what happened? The USD lost 400 pips vs the EURO; should the Euro have done the same on May 7th? Yes but it rallied for 200 and more pips...it is like 600 pips not clear from the perspective of the fundamental analysis; and what about May 14-15? Technical traders were betting on a euro rally vs the dollar, but some fundamental news determined the opposite...a big bearish movement.
What really happened is that two weeks ago on May 7th a market distortion happened and that could have been spotted with technical instrument and with fundamental analysis instrument and so there was an opportunity to make some money trying to determine with the help of fundamental and technical analysis when the market distortion may be adjusted. That was a good opportunity to make good profit.