EUR/USD AUG 28th

The pair is trading @ 1.4348; yesterday it was down @ 1.4220, but yesterday evening right before close it went up to 1.4404 in 30 min; the reason want to be the fact the the Euro zone is getting out of the recession, while the US is not reverting it's negative phase; index executive and consumer sentiment went up and so it was easy for traders to buy Euro vs dollar, the Euro zone pay higher interest rate compared to $. right now there is a possibility that the rate goes to test it's year high to 1.4447, also if I am expecting a retracement today, I do not see a clear better situation for the Euro zone compared to the US one.

in the 4h chart the rate is over the EMA, in the upper bollinger band, RSI is @ 60; and stochastic is retracing, if we consider the last low @ 1.4049, and yesterday high the top of a movement start last Aug 17th, te rate has not retraced for 23% after yesterday top, so I am expecting at least a visit to 1.4320 area; open interest was unchanged.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4698; R2 1.4508; R1 1.4428; S1 1.4244; S2 1.4140; S3 1.3956.

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4350;

stop loss 1.4428 (if it will go up, the high will be broken, so no need to high stop loss)

target back to 1.4250 area, or lower.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 26th

The pair is trading @ 1.4312; yesterday it went to a low of 1.4252, and to a high of 1.4361; the stock market was up, and probably the correction to the actual level is due to a weak oil; since last week the open interest is down; a possible rally in the stock market might drive up the EUR vs the dollar, but if in the next days the stock market will go up too much, we should expect a retracement, so in that case we should be ready to sell the pair, since the dollar will benefit from that kind of event. For today I am flat I do not see an opportunity.

In the 4h chart the pair is trading at the same level of the EMA, right at the same level of the middle bollinger level, RSI is @ 55; the stochastic is a little bit down.

Here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4526; R2 1.4417; R1 1.4365; S1 1.4256; S2 1.4199; S3 1.4090

no trading plan: the pair may go 50 pips up or down, I do not see a clear opportunity.

follow the data release, maybe something will happen;

have a nice rest day

:D