EUR/USD AUG 21st

The pair is trading @ 1.4246; yesterday the pair ranged between 1.4200 and 1.4275; Nothing happened. The reason? Probably nobody is able to understand if the bad period is over or not; lots of data let me think it is not over and it may get worse, while last Wednesday the oil demand was looking strong like in booming periods... something is not clear, and no one want to make a step further. today we have some data for the EUR side, some are out and may push the pair a little bit higher. In the 4h chart the pair is trading over the EMA, in the upper bollinger band, the RSI is @ 57, and the stochastic is retracing to the down side.

Here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4390; R2 1.4315; R1 1.4281; S1 1.4206; S2 1.4165; S3 1.4090;

my trading plan:

sell here @ 1.4243;

stop loss @ 1.4327;

target: 1.4050 area.

have a nice trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 20th

The pair is trading @ 1.4221; yesterday we moved from 1.4084 to 1.4267; the reason is clear: oil stat said that oil stock went down at a record pace, the first reason might be an increased demand, that could mean that the recession is over... so the oil went strongly up and the stock market led by energy shares went also up; OK demand for oil in summer is usually higher, we also have a hot summer...so now we need to understand about the rest; I think for the moment yesterday's episode needs a confirmation, and untill we have one the market should not move away from the actual levels. The Dow Jones yesterday closed up at the same level it was 10 min after oil stat...Nikkei this morning just recovered from the other few days ofdiscrepancies (it was down yesterday compared to the other stock market...).

Today we will get the Unemployment claims number and the Natural GAS stat (will this one also move the market today?)

In the 4h chart we are above the Ema, in the upper bollinger band; RSI is @ 55; the stochastic might need a correction on the downside.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4557; R2 1.4374; R1 1.4297; S1 1.4114; S2 1.4008; S3 1.3825.

My trading plan:

sell 1x unit now @ 1.4219;

stop loss @ 1.4327;

target 1.4084 or lower.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 19th

The pair is trading @ 1.4090; yesterday after reaching 1.4151 it went down to 1.4067, and than up to 1.4171; now it is back to below 1.4100. The German PPI is out, it is really negative and we do not have more news today. The Dow Jones yesterday recovered closing up 0.90%, but this morning Nikkei is down 0.79%; this is confirming the possibility of a new bottom; in that case the dollar should get really strong due to risk aversion. In the 4H chart I see the pair trading below the EMA, it is trading in the lower bollinger band; RSI is 41; the stochastic has space for a bearish movement; in the 1day chart for the first time we can see a clear bar below the EMA, if today we will never go above yesterday's high a bearish trend may start soon.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4317; R2 1.4213; R1 1.4152; S1 1.4048; S2 1.4005; S3 1.3901;

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4101;

stop loss 1.4180 (it should be clear yesterday high is passed)

target 1.4000 area or lower

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 18th

The pair is trading @ 1.4119; yesterday it went down to 1.4040 from 1.4200; yesterday was another day where the stock market went down and the crude oil also; risk aversion made the dollar stronger than other currencies; this morning the Asian markets where flat, that mean that the worse is not gone, and the probability we are going to touch a new bottom are growing, the dollar in that case might get really strong and 1.25 should be the real target. Right now on the 4h chart the pair is trading in the lower bollinger band, below the EMA, RSI is @ 40; the stochastic is pointing up, but looks more like a retracement. If today the pair will fail to go above 1.4198, it should start a bearish period with strong support in area 1.3800-1.3737;

here are support and resistance for today:

R3 1.4454; R2 1.4288; R1 1.4203; S1 1.4037; S2 1.3856; S3 1.3790;

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4125;

if it goes up, sell again @ 1.4153-1.4175 (try to capture a good sell in that area)

stop loss @ 1.4203, or few pips higher, need to have 1.4198 passed;

target 1.40 or lower (during the day this target may change and it might also be convenient to close the position @ 1.4050 for example, just follow the evolution of the day).

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 17th

The pair is trading @ 1.4156; during last session it went from 1.4306 area, to 1.4150 area; this morning it was a little bit down, but the gap was recovered in the last 30 min; it's interesting to notice that last Friday also the stock market was down, and the oil was down. looks like we are going to check the bottom again, or it is just a correction; the strong dollar may support a check for a new bottom. in the 4H chart the pair is trading below the EMA and it is in the lower bollinger band; the RSI is @ 39, and the stochastic is bearish;

here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4516; R2 1.4360; R1 1.4360; S1 1.4102; S2 1.4048; S3 1.3892;

my trading plan:

you may sell right now @ 1.4150;

stop loss 1.4220 (over the EMA)

target 1.4000 for the moment, or lower.

have a good trading day

:)