Eur/USD Mar 15th trading opportunity

The pair is trading @ 1.3911; Yesterday it went from a low of 1.3903 to a high of 1.4002;
Apparently no news drove the pair, except for the stories from Japan. the consequences of the tsunami will weight for sure on the energy prices, which haven't raised a lot so far, so we still have an opportunity to buy; after the nuclear plant trouble we saw yesterday the Germans saying that they may reduce the number of their nuclear plants. The energy consumption will not be reduced, it will simply come from something else like coal for example, I would not be surprised if this will trigger up all the energy commodities; All this facts are happening at the same time of an exceptional events in north Africa, in primis Libya unrest. If in the near term we should see the energy prices going up, in the medium term we should see an effect of all this environment on the European GDP which should slow down.
At the same time today Bernanke will review the bond-purchase program.
Technically we failed to break the wall of 1.4000 and now we are trading close to yesterday low. in Few hours the liquidity will be high and we should break the 1.3900; On the hourly chart I see that we are trading on the lower bollinger band and the RSI is oversold;
Here are some support and resistance:

R4 1.4236; R3 1.4137; R2 1.4038; R1 1.3975; S1 1.3876; S2 1.384; S3 1.3741; S4 1.3642. Yesterday strategy to build a short position up to 1.4000 was a good idea, right now we are stuck before 1.3900 which I do not see as a support; I will reduce by half my position so I will realize some profit and I will play the other half with a target to 1.3740 area and a stop loss at 1.4040; Happy trading to all

Eur/Usd Mar 14th

The pair is trading to 1.3940; this morning it went to 1.3980 after opening the week at 1.3965;
Clearly there is indecision among the bulls to buy further around 1.40 area. The energy complex this morning is trading down on the day and that should support the Dollar against the Euro. Later we have the industrial production m/m for Europe, which is seen up 0.4%, 0.1% higher than the previous one.
On the Libya front Qaddafi if strong and is winning against the "rebels"; if that will happened there will be a negative impact on European GDP which is the biggest oil importer from Libya. Would not be really aggressive if I say that the pair should be bearish in the medium term due to Libya.
Technically we are trading in the upper section of the Bollinger bands and we are approaching the medium band; I see the possibility for another test to 1.4000, or in case of hesitation a drop to 1.3860 will be probabilistic, and from there it may point down to the first support around 1.3800 area.
Here are some resistance and supports:

R4 1.4344; R3 1.4181; R2 1.4018; R1 1.3959; S1 1.3796; S2 1.3692; S3 1.3529; S4 1.3366.

I would try to build a short position from here up to 1.4000 with a stop at 1.4040 and try to point down to 1.3860 or lower to 1.3796 which is the first support;
Note that Weber speaks around  1 pm London time...it is usually bullish for the euro, so be careful around that time.
Happy trading to all
 


 

Eur/Usd Mar 14-18

The Pair started the week trading up to 1.4040 and than went down to 1.3753 last friday, to find some boost and regain area 1.3900;
In my view it already priced a possible ECB rate hike at 1.40 area, and than the pair went down probably on the fact that the energy prices were off from the high of the previous week, making the usd looking stronger than the Euro.
Last Friday main news was the Japanese quake and tsunami, also if the Euro went up on a renewed talk on rate hike.
For next week we should follow really close the evolution on the unrest in Libya and the japanese consequence on the world economy.
The consequesenque on what is happening in Libya will have an impact on the european GDP and so really soon we will see European economic stats deteriorating;
On the other side the consequences of what happened in japan should have an immediate effects on the costs of the energy, but that will not be limited to Europe only but to the all world.
In both cases we may see the inflation going up and so that will increse the probability of an imminent rate hike from ECB.
We are in a really tricky situation.
Here are some resistance and support to whatch for the next week:

R4 1.4759; R3 1.4472; R2 1.4185; R1 1.4043; S1 1.3756; S2 1.3611; S3 1.3324; S4 1.3037.

It seems clear that next week we may see some volatility. the first target for the pair will be the 1.4040 area, but I see really unlike the possibility to test 1.4185 already next week, while in case of a bearish movement to 1.3756 I see possible a test to 1.3611 area.
Happy trading to all.