Eur/Usd OCT 26th

The Pair closed the week ended Oct 23rd @ 1.5007; during last week the pair traded between a low of 1.4828 and a high of 1.5060; during last session the pair went often to 1.5030 area, but never was strong enough to settle a potential new high. the equities market went down in the last trading session and in general it showed a possibility that a correction is needed. the pair is in a bullish trend, and last movement started at 1.4478 and went up without any real retracement equal or bigger to 38%; right now a correction of 38% would push the pair down to 1.4860; in case the pair will go up next week without any corrective action, in the event the pair does a correction at 1.5300, a 38% correction would end right @ 1.4990 area. The RSI is @55 and the stochastic is in a bullish situation also if it need some retracement. The pair is so strong than since 20 candles we do not have a clear candle in the lower section of the bollinger band. the last candle has the low that touch the middle level of bollinger and as well the EMA.

It looks like we may go short with the pair and try to make some money on the short side; in case we are wrong and the pair goes up we need a 38% correction before the pair touch 1.5300 to recover our money and maybe make some profit. on the long side I would wait for more confirmation before enter a trade since the bullish trend doesn't have a lot of space in the upside in the short term.

here are some interesting article you may consider to read:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6389779/Euro-at-1.50-is-disaster--for-Europe.html#

http://www.businessinsider.com/roubini-i-dont-believe-in-gold-2009-10

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDGvmWmB18w0

My plan is to write more, maybe in the evening since in the morning I do not have any time anymore. will see.

:D

EUR/USD SEP 14th

The pair is trading @ 1.4532; during last session it went up to 1.4635, and than down to 1.4570; this week it open up to 1.4600 but it is already retracing down. What happened is that Thursday 7th after a data on US employment the market first went down and after a couple of hours it started a bullish period that in the case of EUR/USD lasted 400 pips; that data was negative, but better than the previous, so looks like the market started thinking positive...the real cause that pushed the dollar so low was the risk taking, trader see the market might go up, so this mean that they short dollars and invest into other currency such as EURO. Today Eur industrial production and Employment change will be published, so traders are scared of bad data, that is why so early in the morning the pair is going down; This is a good opportunity for short to get out if it will be needed. In my case I might short the pair right now (I just did); My opinion is that the equities market did run too much last week and now some adjustment on the down side will be made; The oil market is going down it is @68-something.

On the 4H chart the pair is trading in the lower bollinger band, it crossed the faster EMA and is approaching the slower EMA; The RSI is @ 51 and the stochastic is quite depressed;from it's high the pair retraced only 23% (so pay attention because it might be a good starting point for a further bullish movement, never forget stop loss); the Variance is diminished.

here are some resistance and support:

R3 1.4709; R2 1.4644; R1 1.4588; S1 1.4523; S2 1.4514; S3 1.4449.

my trading plan:

short 1x unit @ 1.4531;

stop loss @ 1.4588;

target 1.4300 area.

the assumption is that the retracement will create a new ranging area between 1.4630 and 1.4200. Pay attention to fix stop loss, since the market is quite irrational and it might go up to 1.5000.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 28th

The pair is trading @ 1.4348; yesterday it was down @ 1.4220, but yesterday evening right before close it went up to 1.4404 in 30 min; the reason want to be the fact the the Euro zone is getting out of the recession, while the US is not reverting it's negative phase; index executive and consumer sentiment went up and so it was easy for traders to buy Euro vs dollar, the Euro zone pay higher interest rate compared to $. right now there is a possibility that the rate goes to test it's year high to 1.4447, also if I am expecting a retracement today, I do not see a clear better situation for the Euro zone compared to the US one.

in the 4h chart the rate is over the EMA, in the upper bollinger band, RSI is @ 60; and stochastic is retracing, if we consider the last low @ 1.4049, and yesterday high the top of a movement start last Aug 17th, te rate has not retraced for 23% after yesterday top, so I am expecting at least a visit to 1.4320 area; open interest was unchanged.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4698; R2 1.4508; R1 1.4428; S1 1.4244; S2 1.4140; S3 1.3956.

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4350;

stop loss 1.4428 (if it will go up, the high will be broken, so no need to high stop loss)

target back to 1.4250 area, or lower.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 26th

The pair is trading @ 1.4312; yesterday it went to a low of 1.4252, and to a high of 1.4361; the stock market was up, and probably the correction to the actual level is due to a weak oil; since last week the open interest is down; a possible rally in the stock market might drive up the EUR vs the dollar, but if in the next days the stock market will go up too much, we should expect a retracement, so in that case we should be ready to sell the pair, since the dollar will benefit from that kind of event. For today I am flat I do not see an opportunity.

In the 4h chart the pair is trading at the same level of the EMA, right at the same level of the middle bollinger level, RSI is @ 55; the stochastic is a little bit down.

Here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4526; R2 1.4417; R1 1.4365; S1 1.4256; S2 1.4199; S3 1.4090

no trading plan: the pair may go 50 pips up or down, I do not see a clear opportunity.

follow the data release, maybe something will happen;

have a nice rest day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 21st

The pair is trading @ 1.4246; yesterday the pair ranged between 1.4200 and 1.4275; Nothing happened. The reason? Probably nobody is able to understand if the bad period is over or not; lots of data let me think it is not over and it may get worse, while last Wednesday the oil demand was looking strong like in booming periods... something is not clear, and no one want to make a step further. today we have some data for the EUR side, some are out and may push the pair a little bit higher. In the 4h chart the pair is trading over the EMA, in the upper bollinger band, the RSI is @ 57, and the stochastic is retracing to the down side.

Here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4390; R2 1.4315; R1 1.4281; S1 1.4206; S2 1.4165; S3 1.4090;

my trading plan:

sell here @ 1.4243;

stop loss @ 1.4327;

target: 1.4050 area.

have a nice trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 20th

The pair is trading @ 1.4221; yesterday we moved from 1.4084 to 1.4267; the reason is clear: oil stat said that oil stock went down at a record pace, the first reason might be an increased demand, that could mean that the recession is over... so the oil went strongly up and the stock market led by energy shares went also up; OK demand for oil in summer is usually higher, we also have a hot summer...so now we need to understand about the rest; I think for the moment yesterday's episode needs a confirmation, and untill we have one the market should not move away from the actual levels. The Dow Jones yesterday closed up at the same level it was 10 min after oil stat...Nikkei this morning just recovered from the other few days ofdiscrepancies (it was down yesterday compared to the other stock market...).

Today we will get the Unemployment claims number and the Natural GAS stat (will this one also move the market today?)

In the 4h chart we are above the Ema, in the upper bollinger band; RSI is @ 55; the stochastic might need a correction on the downside.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4557; R2 1.4374; R1 1.4297; S1 1.4114; S2 1.4008; S3 1.3825.

My trading plan:

sell 1x unit now @ 1.4219;

stop loss @ 1.4327;

target 1.4084 or lower.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 19th

The pair is trading @ 1.4090; yesterday after reaching 1.4151 it went down to 1.4067, and than up to 1.4171; now it is back to below 1.4100. The German PPI is out, it is really negative and we do not have more news today. The Dow Jones yesterday recovered closing up 0.90%, but this morning Nikkei is down 0.79%; this is confirming the possibility of a new bottom; in that case the dollar should get really strong due to risk aversion. In the 4H chart I see the pair trading below the EMA, it is trading in the lower bollinger band; RSI is 41; the stochastic has space for a bearish movement; in the 1day chart for the first time we can see a clear bar below the EMA, if today we will never go above yesterday's high a bearish trend may start soon.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4317; R2 1.4213; R1 1.4152; S1 1.4048; S2 1.4005; S3 1.3901;

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4101;

stop loss 1.4180 (it should be clear yesterday high is passed)

target 1.4000 area or lower

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 18th

The pair is trading @ 1.4119; yesterday it went down to 1.4040 from 1.4200; yesterday was another day where the stock market went down and the crude oil also; risk aversion made the dollar stronger than other currencies; this morning the Asian markets where flat, that mean that the worse is not gone, and the probability we are going to touch a new bottom are growing, the dollar in that case might get really strong and 1.25 should be the real target. Right now on the 4h chart the pair is trading in the lower bollinger band, below the EMA, RSI is @ 40; the stochastic is pointing up, but looks more like a retracement. If today the pair will fail to go above 1.4198, it should start a bearish period with strong support in area 1.3800-1.3737;

here are support and resistance for today:

R3 1.4454; R2 1.4288; R1 1.4203; S1 1.4037; S2 1.3856; S3 1.3790;

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4125;

if it goes up, sell again @ 1.4153-1.4175 (try to capture a good sell in that area)

stop loss @ 1.4203, or few pips higher, need to have 1.4198 passed;

target 1.40 or lower (during the day this target may change and it might also be convenient to close the position @ 1.4050 for example, just follow the evolution of the day).

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD AUG 17th

The pair is trading @ 1.4156; during last session it went from 1.4306 area, to 1.4150 area; this morning it was a little bit down, but the gap was recovered in the last 30 min; it's interesting to notice that last Friday also the stock market was down, and the oil was down. looks like we are going to check the bottom again, or it is just a correction; the strong dollar may support a check for a new bottom. in the 4H chart the pair is trading below the EMA and it is in the lower bollinger band; the RSI is @ 39, and the stochastic is bearish;

here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4516; R2 1.4360; R1 1.4360; S1 1.4102; S2 1.4048; S3 1.3892;

my trading plan:

you may sell right now @ 1.4150;

stop loss 1.4220 (over the EMA)

target 1.4000 for the moment, or lower.

have a good trading day

:)

EUR/USD July 31th

The pair is trading @ 1.4121; yesterday it went from 1.4007 to 1.4080 area, to go higher during the night to 1.4145; if there were not so many bears for a down trend; we made sure that there was no more space on the up side after 1.4300; so here we are, in the middle. Today we have some important data release, in a couple of hour we have the German CPI y/y, expected lower, and unemployment rate expected higher; later for the $ we have a GDP data, the rest should not influence any direction; one good news for the bears: the open interest yesterday was down around 10%... so yesterday movement up was not supported; In the 4H chart I see the pair approaching the mid of the bollinger bands, with a bearish candle starting exactly from the mid;the stochastic need a correction down, and the RSI is @ 47; the pair is trading below the EMA; the all picture is for a bearish continuation after yesterday retracement, but keep an eye on today data release.
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4369; R2 1.4230; R1 1.4175; S1 1.4036; S2 1.3952; S3 1.3813;
my trading plan;
sell 1x unit now @ 1.4117;
stop loss 1.4180-1.4200 (better to wait for same data before decide it, the variance may increase as data are released)
target 1.3975 or below.
have a good trading day
:D

EUR/USD July 30th

The pair is trading @ 1.4079; yesterday it went down from 1.4194 to 1.4006; today is the unemployment day: follow it's release in Germany and US; after yesterday drop for the pair, I was expecting confirmations, but the OI in primis was down...I am still trying to understand why; anyway it could mean that if there is no more space on the upside after 1.4300, well there is less space on the down side after 1.4000. In the 4H chart I see the pair returning into the lower bollinger band, but still far away from EMA and middle BB, to confirm a possible return to 1.4300 we need this pair to go up to 1.4180 first;RSI is @ 38; the stochastic is for the upside; I probably will stay out of the market untill data are published;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4469; R2 1.4281; R1 1.4180; S1 1.3992; S2 1.3905; S3 1.3717;

No trading plan right now;

I have closed yesterday my two short positions;

I am scared of this fallen open interest, I was expecting the opposite;

I will follow the German unemployment data and I will act;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 29th

The pair is trading @ 1.4124; right now a bearish candle is on; yesterday after touch the high @ 1.4304 the pair went down to 1.4134; after that we had a retracement to to 1.4265 area and than to 1.4190 area and now it started it's way down again; today low was 1.4109 for the moment; as I did say yesterday, @ 1.4300 we probably have big seller of Eur/Usd; anyway today we have serious data release and so will be decided if for this [pair there is more space on the upside or the way back to 1.2500 will start today.

In the 4H chart considering the last clear movement (1.3823-1.4304) the pair is retraced 38% and this mean that it is probably gaining strange to pass the 1.4300 resistance; on the other hand the pair is trading below yesterday min and so it may follow down; 1.4050 may indicate the possibility of a new bearish trend start, so be really careful in that area if you hold a long position; right now the pair is trading below the lower bollinger band, so below the EMA, the RSI is @ 37 and the stochastic need a break, so a small correction, before a huge bearish movement (?). Today we are waiting for the German CPI, it is expected lower than last time (be really careful with this indicator); on the other side of the pair we have "Core durable goods orders m/m and later the beige book (do not ignore the last one, it may start a new trend, and it did in the past). So we have a day where everything may happen or just nothing and we'll continue ranging.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4531; R2 1.4361; R1 1,4249; S1 1.4079; S2 1.4021; S3 1.3851;

My trading plan:

YOU should be short since yesterday;

I am short two units ( I shorted a second one @1.4167)

I will stay short waiting for 1.4134 to be break or not; we went lower today, but right now we are trading @ 1.4143...

take profit @ 1.4170

target 1.4050, and there the big decision: lower or back?

keep an eye on today data release.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 28th

The pair is trading @ 1.4273; yesterday it went down to 1.4170 and than up to 1.4297; after the high the pair went down for a correction and now is ready to go to test 1.4300 again; the open interest was down yesterday. In the 4H chart I see the RSI @ 60; the stochastic is moving up; the pair is trading over the EMA and in the upper bollinger band, by the way yesterday the pair have been unable to cross the middle bollinger band vs the downside; the pair is quite strong and is bullish, but the problem will be 1.4300: in three occasions in the last week the pair was rejected down after approaching 1.4300. For sure an open interest down means that for every bear closing is position taking losses there is a bull that close also is position taking profit.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4501; R2 1.4374; R1 1.4323; S1 1.4196; S2 1.4120; S3 1.3993.

My trading plan:

if a new bull will happened this mean that the pair will test successfully 1.4300 and 1.4337;

I will sell right now @ 1.4286;

stop loss @ 1.4340 (or when I think a new high is made and confirmed)

take profit @ 1.4150 or lower.

My idea is that there is no more space for a bullish action, and if 1.4300 will be failed again the pair may retrace more than last few times, probably will approach 1.4000;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 27th

The pair is trading @ 1.4253; last Friday the pair started low @ 1.4134; to end high @ 1.4250 area; than we had a retracement and we went at 1.4250 area this morning again. As the pair went up last Friday the OI didn't the same, it was up only 3k; probably this mean that for this pair there is no more upside; in the 4H chart the pair is trading in the high bollinger band and over the EMA; the two EMA (short and longer period) have converged and this let me think that if the pair will go down to 1.42 in the next couple of hours, a bigger movement down may happen; the RSI is @ 58; the stochastic is indicating that the pair is going up, but now need a break or strong movement up;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4444; R2 1.4328; R1 1.4291; S1 1.4175; S2 1.4096; S3 1.3980;

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4245 (if you think that will never happened another bullish movement on this pair);

stop loss @ 1.4328;

target 1.4150 or lower;

If this was a bet there are more possibilities that the pair will go down than it will stop it's ranging period (2 month now).

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 24th

The pair is trading @ 1.4193; yesterday it went up to 1.4291 and than down to 1.4119; now it is in the middle of that movement; it is a apparently strange, since there was no good reason for such retracement...or somebody had to sell high volumes and decided that 1.4290-1.4300 it's a good area to start that; now the big seller should be satisfied and the pair should go back to it's market value; the way the price went down all other times an high was made, in the last two month, it let me think that there are a lot of big traders that consider the 1.4300 area as a good point to go long $ vs EUR; the open interest was up yesterday, but I am not sure it makes a lot of sense since the pair went down fast; today we have some important data release, and it may confirm that a correction was needed, it is still not time for a higher rate, or they may show that the possibility for the pair to go higher is not that crazy;

in the 4H chart the pair is trading right below the EMA and the middle bollinger band; yesterday during the fall the pair went out of the lower bollinger band;the RSI is @ 52; and the stochastic is starting a bullish 4 hours; from a "Fibonacci perspective" the pair didn't touch 38% of the last up move and right now is crossing the 23% level; we are in no trading zone or in a zone I would call a "be really careful zone";

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4545; R2 1.4373; R1 1.4283; S1 1.4111; S2 1.4029; S3 1.3857

I am going to stay out of the market today also; I prefer to wait for more confirmation; the pair may go up to 1.45 in the next couple of week, I do not believe it may go further up; my long period view says that this pair before the end of 2009 will be back to 1.2500...so this may be the moment where it start going down; I think the chance of a bearish trend are really low, but I prefer to wait for more confirmation before collecting some more pips on the upside or make the big trade on the down side.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 23rd

The pair is trading @ 1.4245; yesterday it went down to 1.4155 and than up to 1.4266; today main data to be released will be Unemployment claims,it is expected worse than last time; in my opinion it should start diminishing really soon; If people with a job are really few (10% less), where do you want to find another 551k fresh unemployed? ;) (it's a joke, a serious one). in the 4h chart the pair is going to test two days ago high and is trading on the high bollinger band; considering the last low on July 8Th this pair ofter touch the high two days ago, it didn't retrace for more than 23%; the EMA is in perfect sintony with a bullish continuation; the RSI is @ 61; the stochastic need a break, just a small one; the all picture seems for a continuation on the upside, also the variance is diminished in the last 8-12 hours, it should go up but something is not working; today we may have a smaller number on unemployment claims, and it may be interpreted as the crisis is over...we can higher interest rate... maybe on EU level...

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4444; R2 1.4333; R1 1.4289; S1 1.4178; S2 1.4111; S3 1.40

my trading plan:

I will wait up to 5 min before the unemployment data are released and I will think about an action, that I will take not before the data is released;

If you have gut right now the trend is up

so buy.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 22nd

The pair is trading right now @ 1.4199; yesterday it went up to 1.4277 and than it retraced down to 1.4162; the way it went down after the high let me think that for the moment there will be no trend for this pair, probably will get again into the ranging area and it will stay there for a while; today and tomorrow I do not see any special data release that may move the rate over 1.43 or below 1.40; in the 4H chart the pair touched the EMA and the the central bollinger band; if yesterday low will be broken we may see the pair down to 1.4070 right today; the RSI is @ 58 and the stochastic is down, but need a retracement on the upside(!!!); yesterday low was touched in correspondence with EMA, medium bollinger band and 23% retracement in Fibonacci system; some indicators are suggesting that this pair is just accumulating enough energy to run up and test 1.4337; other indicator are telling us that this is not the best moment to test 1.4337;

Today is day for traders with GUT;

if the pair will go up it may broken 1.4337 and than 1.4500-1.5000 it's going to be the new stop (300-800 pips); if the pair will go down 1.4098 is the second support and it should be enough for today; I probably will wait for more confirmation since I am for a bigger retracement at the moment;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4443; R2 1.4328; R1 1.4263; S1 1.4148; S2 1.4098; S3 1.3983;

my trading plan:

if yesterday low will not be broken in the next couple of hours,

I will buy 1x unit @ no more than 1.4215;

stop loss @ 1.4098

target 1.43 area or further

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 21st

The pair is trading @ 1.4185; yesterday it went up from 1.4144 to 1.4248; only 100 pips...also today we do not have any data release; but signals may come from Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies; in the 4H chart the rate is retracing, but it is still higher than the Ema and it is trading in the upper bollinger band; the RSI is at 67 and the stochastic is retracing; the open interest was largely up this morning; 100 pips are a small movement for a trend that want to start, but all other indicator are suggesting that the pair may move higher, probably it will test 1.4350 area today;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4400; R2 1.4296; R1 1.4241; S1 1.4137; S2 1.4088; S3 1.3984;

my trading plan:

buy 1x unit now@ 1.4197;

stop loss @ 1.4137;

target 1.4350 area

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 20th

The pair is trading @ 1.4158; after the top at area 1.4160; the pair retraced to 1.4060 area, or by 23%; and now it is probably going to test 1.4340 area; last week data were in favour of a rounding up to 1.50 for this pair; today we do not have any special data release, so I think may be the perfect day for an up move, also tomorrow nothing special will be released; in the 4h chart we can see the RSI @ 65; the stochastic is supporting a bullish movement; the pair is trading higher than EMA level; and it is trading in upper bollinger band with a diminished variance in the last 24 hours; all those are good premises for a strong bullish movement;

here are some supports and resistances:

R3 1.4326; R2 1.4226; R1 1.4191; S1 1.4092; S2 1.4026; S3 1.3926;

here is my trading plan:

buy 1x units now@ 1.4153;

stop loss @ 1.4124;

target: 1.4250 and after 1.4340 area;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 17th

The pair is trading @ 1.4088; yesterday it went up to 1.4160 from 1.4052; so yesterday movement is almost nonexistent at this time; open interest went up yesterday as the pair went up, so I am getting convinced that the ranging period is going to end in another bullish movement; yesterday data were supporting this kind of trend, but something is not working or @ 1.41 or higher there is a huge bear ready to make is game; in the 4h chart if we consider the last low @ 1.3850 area, we see the pair is retracing just 23% today; it is still in the upper bollinger band, over the EMA, RSI@ 56; stochastic retracing bearish; I would say we have space up to 1.4060 to retrace, than we should see a blue bar...

here are some supports and resistances:
R3 1.4316; R2 1.4208; R1 1.4148; S1 1.4040; S2 1.3992; S3 1.3884

my trading plan:

buy now@ 1.4082;

stop loss @ 1.4040 (the low limit of the area 1.4060-1.4040, where I believe there is a huge support);

target 1.4200 or higher, will follow the development.

have a nice trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 16th

The pair is trading @ 1.4060; yesterday it moved from 1.3960 to 1.4130 area; after reach the top it had a correction down to 1.4060 so far; yesterday data were in favour of the dollar; probably all except the decision taken @ the FOMC; I think today data about unemployment claim will be really important as well the TIC long-term purchase data; a quick look at the OI says that yesterday up-movement was well supported and it's not the result of some fake movement; in the 4h chart we are trading in the upper bollinger band, far away from the EMA; rsi is @ 60 and the stochastic is making a retracement; as I said on the 14Th morning: "today is a day for a big movement", looks like we had a big movement up, and it was well prepared: it is clear in the chart; we were @ 1.3900 and right now we may just experience a correction and a consequent test of 1.4160-1.4200 area;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1,4390; R2 1.4220; R1 1.4140; S1 1.3970; S2 1.3880; S3 1.3710;

My trading plan:

I am short 1x unit since yesterday;

I will stay short untill US data will be out;

stop loss 1.4140;

target 1.3900 area

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 15th

The rate is trading @ 1.4061; yesterday it went down to 1.3910 and then it went up to 1.4030 area; this morning we have a continuation of the up movement; today the data about the CPI will be released; for the dollar will be easier to surprise than for the EUR (where the expectation is too high); I think the last 100 pips were just discounting this expectation; if the data will be not so good be ready to sell the pair; in the 4H chart right now we are trading in the upper bollinger band over the up band...and we are trading over the EMA; RSI is @ 64 and the stochastic is bullish; in case the data about the Eur CPI is going to be as the expectation or better be ready for a rally...today may be the last day we trade around 1.4000, stay up to date with data release.

here are some supports and resistances:

R3 1.4240; R2 1.4120; R1 1.4090; S1 1.3970; S2 1.3880; S3 1.3760

My trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4062;

stop loss if EUR CPI is good as expected or it is better;

target 1.3950 or lower if US CPI is better than expected;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 14th

The rate is trading @ 1.3980; yesterday after a bottom at 1.3900 area it went up to 1.4010. for today we have some data release, and those are expected positive for the EUR and a little bit better for the USD; will be interesting to see how the market react to every data release; right now the EUR should be stronger the USD so we may see the rate going further up, probably testing the 1.43 area or we may see a continuation of this ranging period, that could last a year. for today on the 4h chart I see the RSI @ 54; the stochastic need a break...some bearish moment, or just a correction; the pair is trading over the EMA and it is trading in the upper bollinger band with a diminishing variance...today is a day for a big movement.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4396; R2 1.4195; R1 1.4087; S1 1.3886; S2 1.3793; S3 1.3592

My trading plan:

I will buy 1 unit @ 1.3900

or

I will sell 1x unit @ 1.4100

target 100 pips or best solution;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 13th

The pair is trading @ 1.3918; during Friday it went down to 1.3875 area after touch 1.4070 last Thursday; no macro data was supporting this movement so I would say it is just the continuation of the ranging period; on the 4h chart we can see the pair is trading in the EMA area, it was crossing it in the up direction, and apparently it failed to do it; the stochastic is close to change direction, form bullish to bearish; and the RSI is @ 47;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4344; R2 1.4149; R1 1.4034; S1 1.3839; S2 1.3759; S3 1.3564;

may trading plan:

buy 1x unit now @ 1.3930;

buy 1x more unit if the pair goes down to 1.3870;

stop loss just below 1.3839 (as soon we can say 1.3839 is broken)

target 1.4050 area.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 10th

The pair is trading @ 1.3946;yesterday it went down to 1.3830, and than up to 1.4070 area; right now we are probably going back to 1.3900 as the ranging is not over, and I believe it may continue per months; apart from the G8 today some important news will be released in US, and the expectation should make the dollar a little stronger, will see the real data if it will match the expectation; on the 4h chart we are just below the EMA and we just started trading in the lower bollinger band; the RSI is @ 45 and the stochastic is for a bearish continuation; we should have a good support in the area 1.3915-1.3900 so I would buy close to that area.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4429; R2 1.4189; R1 1.4067; S1 1.3827; S2 1.3709; S3 1.3469;

My trading plan:

buy 1x unit here @ 1.3920;

stop loss @ 1.3890 (right after the support area I said before)

target 1.4050;

if stop loss is hit buy again @ 1.3850

stop loss 1.3827;

target 1.4000 or higher;

keep an eye on today news

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 9th

The pair is trading @ 1.3920; yesterday it went down to 1.3830 area and than it went back to 1.3915 area; yesterday low is an old low, so it means that the pair failed the break that resistance; in the 4h chart we can see that since July 1st we are having lower high and lower min; it's important to understand if the overnight retracement is just a retracement and so a trend is starting, or there is no space for a real bearish trend and so will continue ranging with target over 1.4050; the last candle touched the middle band of bollinger, but right now we are trading in the lower band, also below the EMA; RSI is @ 45 and the stochastic may support a bigger correction; except for the G8 today there are no real news that should surprise and influence the rate;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4117; R2 1.4007; R1 1.3963; S1 1.3853; S2 1.3787; S3 1.3677;

my trading plan:

buy here @ 1.3926 if you think more ranging will happened;

stop loss 1.3853;

target 1.4050 or higher;

or sell here @ 1.3926 if you think a trend is starting;

stop loss 1.3963;

or wait and take decision when everything will be a little more clear;

I would say we are in no trading zone;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 8th

The pair is trading around 1.3900; yesterday it went up to 1.4049 and than down to 1.3900 area; this area was a bottom in in two occasions in the last month: in the first one the rate went up to 1.42, in the second few days ago, it went up to yesterday top; so we are trading in the area of really good support and a fail of it would demonstrate that there is no space for a further bearish movement; in the 4h chart the rate is below the EMA, RSI=39; the stochastik need a small retracement or a huge one; today the G8 start and would be a good idea to follow it really close.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4248; R2 1.4099; R1 1.3999; S1 1.3850; S2 1.3801; S3 1.3652;

my trading plan:

buy 1x unit here @ 1.3901;

stop loss @ 1.3850;

target 1.4000 or higher,

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 7th

The pair is trading @1.3937; yesterday it went up to 1.3998 and down to 1.3876; this morning was up to 1.3990 area, again. 1 week ago was there...no important news are coming today, so my expectation is the continuation of the ranging; on the 4h chart the rate is below the EMA and is trading in the lower bollinger band; the RSI is @ 40; the stochastic is turning bearish; the variance is diminishing, so would not surprise if next movement will be up to 1.4100 area; I think this is a good opportunity to buy; I do not believe the pair will go further down.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4181; R2 1.4059; R1 1.3998; S1 1.3876; S2 1.3815; S3 1.3693;

My trading plan:

I will buy 1x unit now @ 1.3933;

stop loss 1.3865 (or close there, when 1.3876 is broken);

target 1.4050-1.4100 area, let's follow today development;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 26th

The pair is trading @ 1.4034; it went down to 1.3890 area and than up to 1.4060; looks like a small correction is needed and than an up move should happen; should...because it may be possible it goes down to 1.39 again...it's 2 weeks now that the rate range between 1.38 and 1.42; My consideration is that so far we had a lot of occasion and news to support a bearish movement to 1.37 area or 1.33, but the rate never went so low, and every time it went down to 1.38 area it moved violently up; so I think that a long time bullish scenario is still on. 1.4700 may be the right target;

we have support @ 1.3970 and @ 1.3890;

we have resistance @1.4100-1.4130 area if this will be broken we may see a violent up move;

may trading plan:

I would accumulate some long position close to 1.4000

stop loss in 100 pips;

target 1.43 and 1.47

have a nice trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 25th

The pair is trading @ 1.3981; yesterday it went up to 1.4120 area from 1.3850 area; and than a correction of around 50% happened right now the rate crossed the EMA in the bullish direction and is trading in the upper bollinger band; the rate is still ranging but probably higher than so far; probably starting from today the range will be 1.4000-1.4200; we have few news today that may contribute to fix the new range, but I do not expect that the ranging period is over;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4524; R2 1.4254; R1 1.4117; S1 1.3847; S2 1.3714; S3 1.3444

may trading plan:

sell @ 1.4100-1.4150 area;

stop loss 100 pips (depend on the level of the sale and on market development)

take profit around 1.4000;

or in case the rate goes back @ 1.3850 area:

buy @ 1.3900 area and take profit @ 1.4000 area

stop loss again 100 pips or better (depend on buy level and market development)

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 24th

The pair is trading @1.4120; yesterday after a test at area 1.3840, failing do break it went up to 1.4100 area; a strong resistance is @ 1.4220 area; as support I see the area 1.3975-14000; for sure yesterday movement mean that the market is expecting a continuation of the Federal Reserve quantitative easing; a decision in that direction my move the rate to test 1.4330 area; a surprise may move it down to 1.3850 area again, or lower; there should be a lot of volatility; I am expecting the rate to follow up untill it will be clear what is the Federal reserve decision; most probably the bull is back; RSI is bullish; stochastic is bullish; pair trading over the EMA and in the upper bollinger band;

here some support and resistance:

R3 1.4587; R2 1.4307; R1 1.4213; S1 1.3933; S2 1.3747; S3 1.3467

my trading plan:

buy 2x units @ 1.4114(now)

stop loss 1.3933;

target 1.4220 or 1.4300 and over (follow today news)

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 22nd

The pair is trading @ 1.3862; last Friday after being two times @ 1.3880 area, it went up to 1.4000 area; today was started in a bearish direction and right now it is trading around 80 pips lower than last Friday closing; we are trading in the lower bollinger band; RSI is @ 43; stochastic bearish; I think 1.3840 represent a good support and breaking it would open a bearish scenario that should lead the rate to 1.3700 area; failing 1.3840 area would probably bring the pair up to 1.4000;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4154; R2 1.4034; R1 1.3948; S1 1.3828; S2 1.3794; S3 1.3674;

My trading plan:

I would sell 2x units, and try to wait for 1.3828:below 1.3828 a bearish scenario should be on;

stop loss 1.3973;

target 1.37 area;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 19th

The pair is trading @ 1.3913; yesterday it went up to 1.4000 area; and down to 1.3870; from that point, it went up again to 1.3940...where it start that day...I think that we have an important support @ 1.3890 area; if that support will be broken the pair should easily broke also 1.3870: yesterday low;right now the pair is over the EMA and is trading in the up band of bollinger; RSI 53, stochastic is bearish... is it is really important that the rate cross 1.3890 area soon, or again we will have no indications;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4192; R2 1.4062; R1 1.3995; S1 1.3865; S2 1.3802; S3 1.3672

No trading plan,I will wait for better confirmation or for a trend;

have a good day

:D

EUR/USD June 18th

The pair is trading @ 1.3965; yesterday it went down to 1.3820 area, and then up to 1.3980 area; during the night there was a small retracement, but now it is checking 1.3980 again; It is a difficult market...anyway the pair looks Bullish and if 1.4000 area will be tested and broke, I would say the pair will fly to 1.43 maybe today; considering H4 chart, the EMA have been crossed; RSI is @ 55, so enough space to support the rate up; the stochastic is also in bullish formation; or probably this is just a strange retracement and the pair will follow down; after all we are seeing lower high and lower low...

for today I do not have a trading plan; I Will wait a less difficult market;

have a good day

:D

EUR/USD June 17th

The pair is trading @ 1.3904; yesterday it went up from 1.3747 to 1.3933; considering Friday downside movement, yesterday we had a retracement of exactly 50%; in the H4 chart we are still in the lower bollinger band; and we are trading at a crucial level; 1.3920 represent the mid of the bollinger band; we are below the exponential moving average; RSI is at 48, the stochastic is indifferent;I think the pair should finally move down; so I will consider an area of neutrality: 1.3891-1.3973; My idea is to short below 1.3891, or to buy over 1.3973, depend on your sentiment; I am still bearish and I will following shorting the market;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4233; R2 1.4047; R1 1.3976; S1 1.3790; S2 1.3675; S3 1.3489;

may trading plan:

my sentiment is short;

I will sell 2x units now @ 1.3896;

stop loss @ 1.3980 (so clearly few pips over 1.3973-76)

target 1.37 area and 1.3400 in a longer period;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 16th

The pair is trading @ 1.3852; yesterday it went down from 1.4000 area to 1.3740 area; it is a movement of 240 pips; during the night than it recover some 100 pips; or or 23% if we consider this movement started at 1.4100; the 4H chart shows the RSI @38; si bearish and the stochastic in up movement; the rate is trading in the lower bollinger band; NOW, I think the bear is back; a first resistance is @ 1.3870 area and a stronger one is @ 1.4000-1.4020 area; on the other side we have a support @ 1.3730 area and @ 1.3600 area; so if the bear will disappear may be painful;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4384; R2 1.4124; R1 1.3988; S1 1.3728; R2 1.3604; R3 1.3344.

my trading plan:

I will sell 2x unit now @1.3857;

sop loss 1.3900;

target 1.37 area and lower for the second unit;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 15th

The pair is trading @ 1.3893; last Friday high was 1.4120 area and low was 1.3930 area; so Friday lower has been passed; the target now should be 1.3850; I do not think today news are going to change the rate; on 4 hour chart the RSI is @ 37; stochastic is bearish; the rate is on the lower band of bollinger; so should go to test one of the support; right now I see the area 1.3863-1.3800 as a good support;

to be clear today is the day where the pair may start a bearish movement; but is this will not happen the target should be: testing 1.43 area; but if 1.3800 will be passed it should test 1.3700 area;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4361; R2 1.4171; R1 1.4032; S1 1.3842; S2 1.3791; S3 1.3601;

here is my trading plan:

I will buy 2x units right now @ 1.3893;

stop loss 1.3842; (it is only 51 pips x2)

target 1.4100; and 1.4200

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 12th

Right now the pair is trading @ 1.4106;yesterday we had a low in area 1.3940 and a max in area 1.4170; it is since May 20th that we are ranging between 1.38-1.43;
yesterday low was 70 pips lower than the close of the candle; the high was also 70 pips higher than the close of the candle;
the pair is trading in upper band of bollinger and the rsi is @56; the stochastic is bearish; for today I am expecting a continuation of this ranging period and so a target 1.3950-1.4000, depend on today development;
here are some support and resistance:


R3 1.4532; R2 1.4302; R1 1.4204; S1 1.3974; S2 1.3842; S3 1.3612;

One more thing: today may happen that this ranging period end...so don't forget to fix stop loss;

My trading plan:
I will sell 2x units now @ 1.4106;
stop loss @ 1.4180
target 1.4000 area for one unit and 1.3900 area for the other unit: will follow during the day;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 11th

The pair is trading right now @ 1.4045; yesterday it went up to 1.4141 and down to 1.3914; the RSI is almost flat at 51 but the stochastic is turned bullish; the pair is also trading in the upper side of the bollinger band; no indication from Fibonacci this time.
the trend is still bullish; so if a continuation of the bullish trend will happen, it will probably be today; this mean that at some point we may see the rate going up to test 1.4340 area; it is 300 pips away; today we have a lot of news and I do not see it impossible; on the down side, we had a formation of an Head&Shoulder that didn't end in any movement...this may be the sign that the bears are not really strong and convinced; anyway a movement below 1.3980 may result in a downside movement with target 1.39 area;
To be clear right now I do not see a clear opportunity to trade;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4487; R21.4260; R1 1.4153; S1 1.3926; S2 1.3806; S3 1.3579

my trading plan:
I would sell now one unit @ 1.4040;
stop loss 1.4150 area;
target 1.3850 or 1.37 area;
or I would wait for the rate to go down 1.3980 and sell it for 1.3850 area;
or buy now, stop loss @ 1.3975 and take profit @ 1.4140 area;
depend if you feel more bullish or bearish or risk adverse;
I am still bearish.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 10th

The rate is trading @ 1.4087 right now; yesterday it went down to 1.3860 area and than up to 1.4115 area; a downside movement was also supported by a bad news for the EUR; for sure a break of 1.3800 area would have determined a clear bearish scenario, and probably everybody is waiting for more confirmations before buy USD vs EUR;
On the 4 hours chart the rate is finishing an head and shoulder that may move the pair down to 1.3300 area; but in this case one last confirmation is needed: 1.3850 area...; French industrial production is down more than expected...
on the up side...the resistance @ 1.4300-50 area is really hard to break and alos 1.4200; maybe if US trade balance will be really bad we may see the pair going to the next stage: 1.45 - 1.50;
I am still bearish;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4531; R2 1.4276; R1 1.4181; S1 1.3926; S2 1.3766; S3 1.3511;

may trading plan:

I will sell 1x unit right now @ 1.4067;
stop loss @ 1.4181;
target 1.3850 and if everything goes in head and shoulders way target 1.3300

have a good trading day;

:D

EUR/USD June 9th

The pair is trading @ 1.3925; yesterday after being up to 1.4000 it went down to 1.3800 and than up to 1.3840 area and up to 1.3900 area; right now it is trading in the upper bollinger band and looks bullish the 15 min chart; In the daily chart it crossed the 30 days exponential moving average at 1.3800 so if today it will go down with a lower minimum than yesterday we may see a violent bearish movement that may end at 1.3300 area; on the upside we have a psychological resistance at 1.4000 and than the last week high should serve as good resistance also; 1.3930 worked as resistance since yesterday so it is really important it doesn't break it; or if it will break it the pair may move up vs 1.4000 area; 1.3915 represent the 23% of Friday-Monday movement; next level is 1.3963 that represent the 38%;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4308; R2 1.4108; R1 1.4017; S1 1.3817; S2 1.3708; S3 1.3508;

My trading plan:
I will sell 1x unit now @ 1.3918;
I will put an order to sell 1x more unit @ 1.3963;
stop loss @ 1.4025;
lock profit for 1x unit @ 1.3800;
with the second unit target to 1.3720-00 area;

have a good trading day;

:D

EUR/USD June 8th

The rate is trading @ 1.3945 in this moment; during last session it went down from 1.4180 area to 1.3960 area; at open Monday night it went to 1.3920 area and up to 1.4000;
during last Friday the high was 1.4267; there is a lot of volatility; 1.4000 represent 23% correction of Friday movement; in the daily chart we are trading right in the middle of the bollinger band; also in the daily chart we are at the same value of the 23 days moving AVG; IF today will go to 1.3800 area a bearish scenario may start after breaking on the dawn side that value; to me looks much more possible we will range for today; between 1.39 and 1.4000 until the German factory order news, and than we may trade up to 1.4100 if confirmed the expectation, or that news will bring the rate down to 1.38.

Here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4468; R2 1.4248; R1 1.4097; S1 1.3877; S2 1.3808; S3 1.3588;

fot today I do not have a trading plan right now;
I am short one unit; I am closing it right now: 1.3926 (it's 19 pips more since i have started writing this morning);
I will wait for an opportunity today, but most probably I will be out of the market for the whole day.

have a good trading day
:D

EUR/USD June 5th

the pair is trading @ 1.4206; yesterday high 1.4241; low 1.4068; it close in positive area from the day before; two days ago and yesterday the volume was higher than usual; the trend is still bullish, and right now we are trading on the upper-side of bollinger band; the RSI is not overbought anymore and the Stochastic is turned bearish;
In my view the pair is turning bearish, but is needed a confirmation, right now on the 4 chart the rate is trading in the lower area of bollinger band...if this candle will close there I think we are going to see a tentative to break 1.40 area today; If not, we may see it at 1.43 again.

here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4518; R2 1.4345; R1 1.4275; S1 1.4102; S2 1.3999; S3 1.3826

my trading plan:
I am short 4x units from yesterday;
I will stay short
stop loss @ 1.4340 area
target 1.3720 area.
1.4250-80 area would be a good rate to enter the market short;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD June 4th

the pair is trading @ 1.4210 right now; yesterday it touched the max and than went down to area 1.41; now 100 pips correction(?); in my view yesterday went down because some news today may bring the rate back to 1.3720 area and maybe to 1.30 area; today we have a lot of really important news, but the most important one will be the decision from the ECB to buy covered bond: NOW, in may the decision was to buy between 60 billion and 125 billion; Weber (Germany) sustain that also 60 billion are too much; but other country want the all package done; now may expectation is the 60 Billion will be the minimum and a surprise may came.
for sure this decision will have a big impact on the pair whatever a wonderful technical analysis may say; so stay tuned for more news about that today.

I will not post support and resistance: they make no sense today;

my trading plan:
short @ 1.42 4x units;
stop loss 1.4340;
if good news hold; if bad news close immediately;
pyramid on the down side
target 1.37 area or for a long period 1.30

good luck

and have a good trading day
:D

EUR/USD June 3rd

The pair is still strong, the trend is bullish and right now is preparing for another run on the upside; Now since I want the trend to be my friend...I will not play against it; My expectation was an inversion of the trend in the next couple of days, or at least a correction to 1.4000 area...but I will wait a little bit longer; I had a short position and I close it right now; I made also few pips :D
I will wait at least the first support is broken; or I will stay out...
here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4711; R2 1.4478; R1 1.4389; S1 1.4156; S2 1.4012; S3 1.3779

to be clear if the ECB will decide to buy 60 billion of covered bond for sure the pair will have a correction that may find the support of some long covering...it may bring the pair back to 1.3720 area... but it is too risky right now;
I will see during the day if some news may at least help to play this game.

No trading plan for the moment;
I will wait for an opportunity to short the pair and right now I do not feel a good idea to open a new long position.

Have a good trading day
:D

EUR/USD Jun 2nd up date

Today we had another bullish day; the pair moved up to 1.4330 from 1.4101;
right now it is trading @ 1.4322;
tomorrow we will have some important news on the USD side and a not worse data than expected may change the all scenario;
over 1.40 looks like the EU exportation vs US may have a problem...
somebody else says that EUR is overestimated by 25% vs USD...
next Thursday we may know that somebody just decided to buy 60 billion euros of covered bonds, I am talking about ECB president...
Now the technical analysis says BULLISH;
But we have some fundamental that may drive the pair back below 1.4000
I will start building a short position from now until tomorrow, and will see by the end of the week if this bullish scenario will follow or will end soon.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4709; R2 1.4480; R1 1.44; S1 1.4171; S2 1.4022; S3 1.3793

my trading plan:
I will sell 1x unit of EUR/USD right now @1.4321 (I know I should never try to anticipate the market...)
stop loss @ 1.46;
and I will see tomorrow if I will sell more on the way down or up.

have a good trading
:D

EUR/USD June 2nd

The pair is trading @ 1.4126; the main trend is bullish; the last main movement up goes from 1.3800 to 1.4240; right now the retracement going on represent 23% of the last bullish movement; we have one strong support @ 1.4100 and a psychological one @ 1.40; 1.3900 represent 76% of this last bullish movement...we have all rounded number!!!
on the resistance side we have a small one @ 1.4160-80; and a good one @ 1.4220-40;
now the main trend is bullish, but a retracement is needed before an up movement.

here is my trading plan:
I will build a position on the retracement and I will try to pyramid it on the upside (some luck is needed to be clear);
I will buy 1x unit now@ 1.4125;
I will buy 1x unit @ 1.4100;
I will buy 1x unit @ 1.4000;
I will buy 1x unit @ 1.3900;
stop loss @ 1.3860;
with one unit take profit @ 1.4220;
with two unit I will buy one more @ 1.4180;
with 3x unit I will buy 2x more @ 1.4180 and 1x more @ 1.4220.

on the GBP/USD side there is something similar going on...no so much time to write about it but my trading plan is the same;

have a good trading day;
:D

EUR/USD and GBP/USD May 29th

EUR/USD is trading in 1.400 area; yesterday high1.3982; low 1.3782; it moved for 200 pips and never went to 1.4000; next target is going to be 1.4050, and next may happen a bullish movement up; or a failing to move on the upside after 1.4000 may bring the rate down for another correction to 1.3850 area; to be clear it failed once @ 1.4040 to follow on the upside and now after a week is there again...another fail would create a double high and a potential reverse pattern;
the only opportunity I see is in short position, but it may be painful;
here are some resistance and support:
R3 1.4321; R2 1.4121; R1 1.4061; S1 1.3861; S2 1.3721; S3 1.3521;

my trading plan:
I will sell 1x unit right now @ 1.4007;
stop loss 1.4070;
take profit @ 1.3861


GBP/USD is trading @ 1.6042; yesterday high 1.6016; low 1.5853; this pair looks stronger than EUR/USD, but right now the RSI is @ 70 after it was higher cinse yesterday and it is trading next to the upper bollinger band; so a "calm down" to 1.6000 area will be needed; also in this case if the rate goes up it will meet a huge resistance in 1.6080 if it want to retrace it will be 1.5850 area; so I think would be better to play that way;
here some support and resistance:
R3 1.6296; R2 1.6133; R1 1.6086; S1 1.5923; S2 1.5807; S3 1.5644

this is my trading plan:
I will sell 1x unit now @ 1.6048;
stop loss 1.6090;
take profit in area 1.5850.

both the pair may break the 1st resistance and go up; but to me, clearly, looks to risky the upside, since it may take a 40 pips, I would say that the probability they rally for 200 pips today is low; in case of a correction and a long position the stop loss should be placed in 1.5800 area...I do not see a long strategy so convenient as a short one; anyway if You have guts may be your day.

have a good trading day
:D

EUR/USD May 28Th

The pair is trading right now @ 1.3820; yesterday low 1.3823; high 1.3999 (please note this);
So it failed to break definitively 1.40 area and retraced down to 1.3800 area this early morning;
today we are going to know some news: German unemployment change and US unemployment claim; among the others these two are the most important to me;
the German is expected worst; so I think the pair will go down until it's publication; if this news will be not better than expected I see EUR/USD at 1.3720 area right before the US unemployment claims; If this will be not worst than expected I will sell more EUR/USD otherwise I will cover all my short positions;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.429; R2 1.4060; R1 1.3943; S1 1.3764; S2 1.3702; S3 1.3523

this is my trading plan:
I am short 1x unit EUR/USD since yesterday
stop loss down to 1.3864 (my expectation is that the rate will not go over 1.3855 today)
today I will sell 1x unit now @ 1.3834;
stop loss 1.3864
target 1.3700 area;

have a good trading day
:D

EUR/USD and GBP/USD May 27th

EUR/USD is trading @ 1.3950 area; yesterday it failed to break 1.4000 area and retraced to 1.3850 area; today is the day where it can go up and break 1.40 or it will retrace down to 1.3850 and than down to 1.3720 area;
at this point I would bet on a fail to continue the bullish trend; the RSI (15min chart) right now is flat at 51; the rate went down 50 percent of yesterday up movement and right now should attempting area 1.4000;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4281; R2 1.4118; R1 1.4051; S1 1.3888; S2 1.3792; S3 1.3629

my trading plan here is:
I will sell 1x unit right now @ 1.3966;
stop loss @ 1.4051;
target area 1.3850


GBP/USD is trading @ 1.5987; yesterday it didn't move at all; this morning went down to 1.5926 and up to 1.59999999 ,it is a joke I think it just touched 1.6000;
I do not think we have a good macroeconomic support to justify the continuation of the bullish momentum; to be clear I do not see the rate @ 1.65 right now it will look to much distorted;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.6274; R21.6082; R1 1.6003; S1 1.5811; S2 1.5698; S3 1.5314

here is my trading plan:
I will sell now 1x unit @ 1.5986;
stop loss @ 1.6030(it is just 44 pips);
target 1.58 area

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD May 26th-27th

Right now it is trading @ 1.3994; today high 1.4022; low 1.3859;
it is 3x biz days now, that the rate try to break the resistance at 1.4000 area;
a first look at the volumes says that the volume goes down as 1.4000 is approached;
the trend is still bullish; but I see a huge resistance @ 1.4035 right now;
looks like the bull are not that strong, and the bear may came out;
for sure is the pair will fail again to break 1.4000,as it looks it is happening, it should retrace at least to 1.3720 area again;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4283; R2 1.4120; R1 1.4055; S1 1.3892; S2 1.3794; S3 1.3631

here is my trading plan:
I will sell 2x unit now @ 1.3987;
stop loss @ 1.4040;
target: 1.38 area and 1.3720 area;

have a good trading

:D

GBP/USD May 26th

GBP/USD right now it is mailto:trading@1.5872; it went down to 1.5860 yesterday; but still hasn't touched 1.6000;
ok last thursday we had a first attempt; but we know it was an holiday in big part of Europe and so thin volumes; friday there was a second one and again a fail; yesterday again down to 1.5848 and up...not really up; during the night down to 1.5860 and up and down;
I am confused; if it wasn't for the two holidays we had I would say that the dollars bears are not strong enough; also against the Euro the dollar is resisting @ 1.4000 area; it was passed, but it was below right after;
Now the last 3x biz days the volume was low and we should consider it;
I think that if today we will see another attempt to break 1.6000 first we should see a correction to 1.5831 area or 1.5808 or 73% of the range was created after the first failing attack to 1.6000;
I do not see any pivot point...resistance @1.5940;
good support @ 1.5750 area, in case it will be breaked we can experiment a violent retracement to 1.5500 area; I would suggest to be really carefull today.

here is my trading plan:
I will buy 1x unit of GBP/USD now @ 1.5854;
I will buy 1x unit of GBP/USD @ 1.5831, if it goes so low;
stop loss per both @ 1.5750 to be moved maybe few pips if the situation suggest it...maybe;
target 1.6000 and over;
if it will fail also today to break 1.6000 I may turn into bear;

GBP/USD May 22nd

The rate is trading @ 1.5870; yesterday High 1.5896; low 1.5516; close @ 1.5853;
In light of yesterday correction to 1.5510 area around 70% of the bullish movement of the day before, I was expecting the pair to move at least to 1.5980-1.6000 area; this didn't happened; so today I will play on correction and major trend movement; I think that we should experiment at least a correction to area 1.5780-1.5800 before a movement vs area 1.6000; I see it to risky to bet on a continuation on the bullish side, since the fail yesterday to perform area 1.600 may bring to a major correction of the main trend;
Here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.6515; R2 1.6135; R1 1.5994; S1 1.5614; S2 1.5375; S3 1.4995;

here is my trading plan;
I will sell 2x unit of GBP/USD right now @ 1.5870; stop loss @ 1.5910;
I will take profit 1.5780-1.5800 area;
and than I will go long 2x unit where I close the short posiition;
stop loss 1.5695;
take profit close to 1.6000;

have a good trading day
:D

please if any comment good one or bad one, do not esitate.