EUR/USD July 24th

The pair is trading @ 1.4193; yesterday it went up to 1.4291 and than down to 1.4119; now it is in the middle of that movement; it is a apparently strange, since there was no good reason for such retracement...or somebody had to sell high volumes and decided that 1.4290-1.4300 it's a good area to start that; now the big seller should be satisfied and the pair should go back to it's market value; the way the price went down all other times an high was made, in the last two month, it let me think that there are a lot of big traders that consider the 1.4300 area as a good point to go long $ vs EUR; the open interest was up yesterday, but I am not sure it makes a lot of sense since the pair went down fast; today we have some important data release, and it may confirm that a correction was needed, it is still not time for a higher rate, or they may show that the possibility for the pair to go higher is not that crazy;

in the 4H chart the pair is trading right below the EMA and the middle bollinger band; yesterday during the fall the pair went out of the lower bollinger band;the RSI is @ 52; and the stochastic is starting a bullish 4 hours; from a "Fibonacci perspective" the pair didn't touch 38% of the last up move and right now is crossing the 23% level; we are in no trading zone or in a zone I would call a "be really careful zone";

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4545; R2 1.4373; R1 1.4283; S1 1.4111; S2 1.4029; S3 1.3857

I am going to stay out of the market today also; I prefer to wait for more confirmation; the pair may go up to 1.45 in the next couple of week, I do not believe it may go further up; my long period view says that this pair before the end of 2009 will be back to 1.2500...so this may be the moment where it start going down; I think the chance of a bearish trend are really low, but I prefer to wait for more confirmation before collecting some more pips on the upside or make the big trade on the down side.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 23rd

The pair is trading @ 1.4245; yesterday it went down to 1.4155 and than up to 1.4266; today main data to be released will be Unemployment claims,it is expected worse than last time; in my opinion it should start diminishing really soon; If people with a job are really few (10% less), where do you want to find another 551k fresh unemployed? ;) (it's a joke, a serious one). in the 4h chart the pair is going to test two days ago high and is trading on the high bollinger band; considering the last low on July 8Th this pair ofter touch the high two days ago, it didn't retrace for more than 23%; the EMA is in perfect sintony with a bullish continuation; the RSI is @ 61; the stochastic need a break, just a small one; the all picture seems for a continuation on the upside, also the variance is diminished in the last 8-12 hours, it should go up but something is not working; today we may have a smaller number on unemployment claims, and it may be interpreted as the crisis is over...we can higher interest rate... maybe on EU level...

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4444; R2 1.4333; R1 1.4289; S1 1.4178; S2 1.4111; S3 1.40

my trading plan:

I will wait up to 5 min before the unemployment data are released and I will think about an action, that I will take not before the data is released;

If you have gut right now the trend is up

so buy.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 22nd

The pair is trading right now @ 1.4199; yesterday it went up to 1.4277 and than it retraced down to 1.4162; the way it went down after the high let me think that for the moment there will be no trend for this pair, probably will get again into the ranging area and it will stay there for a while; today and tomorrow I do not see any special data release that may move the rate over 1.43 or below 1.40; in the 4H chart the pair touched the EMA and the the central bollinger band; if yesterday low will be broken we may see the pair down to 1.4070 right today; the RSI is @ 58 and the stochastic is down, but need a retracement on the upside(!!!); yesterday low was touched in correspondence with EMA, medium bollinger band and 23% retracement in Fibonacci system; some indicators are suggesting that this pair is just accumulating enough energy to run up and test 1.4337; other indicator are telling us that this is not the best moment to test 1.4337;

Today is day for traders with GUT;

if the pair will go up it may broken 1.4337 and than 1.4500-1.5000 it's going to be the new stop (300-800 pips); if the pair will go down 1.4098 is the second support and it should be enough for today; I probably will wait for more confirmation since I am for a bigger retracement at the moment;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4443; R2 1.4328; R1 1.4263; S1 1.4148; S2 1.4098; S3 1.3983;

my trading plan:

if yesterday low will not be broken in the next couple of hours,

I will buy 1x unit @ no more than 1.4215;

stop loss @ 1.4098

target 1.43 area or further

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 21st

The pair is trading @ 1.4185; yesterday it went up from 1.4144 to 1.4248; only 100 pips...also today we do not have any data release; but signals may come from Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies; in the 4H chart the rate is retracing, but it is still higher than the Ema and it is trading in the upper bollinger band; the RSI is at 67 and the stochastic is retracing; the open interest was largely up this morning; 100 pips are a small movement for a trend that want to start, but all other indicator are suggesting that the pair may move higher, probably it will test 1.4350 area today;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4400; R2 1.4296; R1 1.4241; S1 1.4137; S2 1.4088; S3 1.3984;

my trading plan:

buy 1x unit now@ 1.4197;

stop loss @ 1.4137;

target 1.4350 area

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 20th

The pair is trading @ 1.4158; after the top at area 1.4160; the pair retraced to 1.4060 area, or by 23%; and now it is probably going to test 1.4340 area; last week data were in favour of a rounding up to 1.50 for this pair; today we do not have any special data release, so I think may be the perfect day for an up move, also tomorrow nothing special will be released; in the 4h chart we can see the RSI @ 65; the stochastic is supporting a bullish movement; the pair is trading higher than EMA level; and it is trading in upper bollinger band with a diminished variance in the last 24 hours; all those are good premises for a strong bullish movement;

here are some supports and resistances:

R3 1.4326; R2 1.4226; R1 1.4191; S1 1.4092; S2 1.4026; S3 1.3926;

here is my trading plan:

buy 1x units now@ 1.4153;

stop loss @ 1.4124;

target: 1.4250 and after 1.4340 area;

have a good trading day

:D