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eurusd Oct 31st end of day analysis

• the pair went erased last fiday bull and went below last friday low;
• next target 1.3675 area;

The pair started the day @ 1.4136 and was driven in a single  direction down. After some great and expected support around 1.4000 the pair followed down to 1.3827 to trade now around 1.3850.
It is clear that the bulls failed and the bears will now get some support from the closing long posiitons.
Next target should be 1.3675 which is the mid bollinger band on the daily chart.
The Asia session should be determined from the support of the dollar...which may also confirm the bear movement of eurusd; If 1.3675 will be triggered we may see a retracement of the pair to 1.3400;
In the meantime a headline says that greek deficit expanded, that should clearly support the eurusd bear;
Tomorrow we have the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to be higher than last release: this should support the bear.
In case You would like to go long, don't forget to fix your stop loss @ 1.3675.
I will short now with a stopo loss @ 1.4000 and a target to 1.3400
Happy trading

 

more intervention on the yen?

A headline out of reuters says that option players are betting on more yen intervantion in the short term,
also if they did not see this intervention having a lasting impact.

 

eurusd 31-04/Nov

• short opportunity;
• mid term bull trend;
• target 1.3800 with tight stop loss or buy lows with target 1.4550 for mid-long term trades;

The pair closed last week @ 1.4150 area, after a bull move that from a low of 1.3150 triggered through all retracement target and went up over 61.8% of last bear move. right now the clear target will be 1.4550, but in the meantime I see some opportunity to collect few pips shorting the pair, or as well there will be some opportunity to go long on lows.
Next week we will have some news release that will bring some volatility to the pair and also on Thursday we may see a 0.25% rate cut from ECB, which if will not happen should at least advise some long covering before Thursday.
Another sign that may suggest a long covering is the dramatic move that happened last Friday: around 350 pips in one single day, which will translate into a profit taking on each sign of nervousness.
1.4000 or around that area may be a good level to build a long position; or it may be a first target for whom may decide to short the pair.
Up to Thursday than it will be clear if will be better to old a short position or to go long and target 1.4550.
The only thing that will be certain is that there will be a lot of volatility.
Happy trading