EUR/USD July 17th

The pair is trading @ 1.4088; yesterday it went up to 1.4160 from 1.4052; so yesterday movement is almost nonexistent at this time; open interest went up yesterday as the pair went up, so I am getting convinced that the ranging period is going to end in another bullish movement; yesterday data were supporting this kind of trend, but something is not working or @ 1.41 or higher there is a huge bear ready to make is game; in the 4h chart if we consider the last low @ 1.3850 area, we see the pair is retracing just 23% today; it is still in the upper bollinger band, over the EMA, RSI@ 56; stochastic retracing bearish; I would say we have space up to 1.4060 to retrace, than we should see a blue bar...

here are some supports and resistances:
R3 1.4316; R2 1.4208; R1 1.4148; S1 1.4040; S2 1.3992; S3 1.3884

my trading plan:

buy now@ 1.4082;

stop loss @ 1.4040 (the low limit of the area 1.4060-1.4040, where I believe there is a huge support);

target 1.4200 or higher, will follow the development.

have a nice trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 16th

The pair is trading @ 1.4060; yesterday it moved from 1.3960 to 1.4130 area; after reach the top it had a correction down to 1.4060 so far; yesterday data were in favour of the dollar; probably all except the decision taken @ the FOMC; I think today data about unemployment claim will be really important as well the TIC long-term purchase data; a quick look at the OI says that yesterday up-movement was well supported and it's not the result of some fake movement; in the 4h chart we are trading in the upper bollinger band, far away from the EMA; rsi is @ 60 and the stochastic is making a retracement; as I said on the 14Th morning: "today is a day for a big movement", looks like we had a big movement up, and it was well prepared: it is clear in the chart; we were @ 1.3900 and right now we may just experience a correction and a consequent test of 1.4160-1.4200 area;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1,4390; R2 1.4220; R1 1.4140; S1 1.3970; S2 1.3880; S3 1.3710;

My trading plan:

I am short 1x unit since yesterday;

I will stay short untill US data will be out;

stop loss 1.4140;

target 1.3900 area

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 15th

The rate is trading @ 1.4061; yesterday it went down to 1.3910 and then it went up to 1.4030 area; this morning we have a continuation of the up movement; today the data about the CPI will be released; for the dollar will be easier to surprise than for the EUR (where the expectation is too high); I think the last 100 pips were just discounting this expectation; if the data will be not so good be ready to sell the pair; in the 4H chart right now we are trading in the upper bollinger band over the up band...and we are trading over the EMA; RSI is @ 64 and the stochastic is bullish; in case the data about the Eur CPI is going to be as the expectation or better be ready for a rally...today may be the last day we trade around 1.4000, stay up to date with data release.

here are some supports and resistances:

R3 1.4240; R2 1.4120; R1 1.4090; S1 1.3970; S2 1.3880; S3 1.3760

My trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4062;

stop loss if EUR CPI is good as expected or it is better;

target 1.3950 or lower if US CPI is better than expected;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 14th

The rate is trading @ 1.3980; yesterday after a bottom at 1.3900 area it went up to 1.4010. for today we have some data release, and those are expected positive for the EUR and a little bit better for the USD; will be interesting to see how the market react to every data release; right now the EUR should be stronger the USD so we may see the rate going further up, probably testing the 1.43 area or we may see a continuation of this ranging period, that could last a year. for today on the 4h chart I see the RSI @ 54; the stochastic need a break...some bearish moment, or just a correction; the pair is trading over the EMA and it is trading in the upper bollinger band with a diminishing variance...today is a day for a big movement.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4396; R2 1.4195; R1 1.4087; S1 1.3886; S2 1.3793; S3 1.3592

My trading plan:

I will buy 1 unit @ 1.3900

or

I will sell 1x unit @ 1.4100

target 100 pips or best solution;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 13th

The pair is trading @ 1.3918; during Friday it went down to 1.3875 area after touch 1.4070 last Thursday; no macro data was supporting this movement so I would say it is just the continuation of the ranging period; on the 4h chart we can see the pair is trading in the EMA area, it was crossing it in the up direction, and apparently it failed to do it; the stochastic is close to change direction, form bullish to bearish; and the RSI is @ 47;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4344; R2 1.4149; R1 1.4034; S1 1.3839; S2 1.3759; S3 1.3564;

may trading plan:

buy 1x unit now @ 1.3930;

buy 1x more unit if the pair goes down to 1.3870;

stop loss just below 1.3839 (as soon we can say 1.3839 is broken)

target 1.4050 area.

have a good trading day

:D