EUR/USD July 31th

The pair is trading @ 1.4121; yesterday it went from 1.4007 to 1.4080 area, to go higher during the night to 1.4145; if there were not so many bears for a down trend; we made sure that there was no more space on the up side after 1.4300; so here we are, in the middle. Today we have some important data release, in a couple of hour we have the German CPI y/y, expected lower, and unemployment rate expected higher; later for the $ we have a GDP data, the rest should not influence any direction; one good news for the bears: the open interest yesterday was down around 10%... so yesterday movement up was not supported; In the 4H chart I see the pair approaching the mid of the bollinger bands, with a bearish candle starting exactly from the mid;the stochastic need a correction down, and the RSI is @ 47; the pair is trading below the EMA; the all picture is for a bearish continuation after yesterday retracement, but keep an eye on today data release.
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4369; R2 1.4230; R1 1.4175; S1 1.4036; S2 1.3952; S3 1.3813;
my trading plan;
sell 1x unit now @ 1.4117;
stop loss 1.4180-1.4200 (better to wait for same data before decide it, the variance may increase as data are released)
target 1.3975 or below.
have a good trading day
:D

EUR/USD July 30th

The pair is trading @ 1.4079; yesterday it went down from 1.4194 to 1.4006; today is the unemployment day: follow it's release in Germany and US; after yesterday drop for the pair, I was expecting confirmations, but the OI in primis was down...I am still trying to understand why; anyway it could mean that if there is no more space on the upside after 1.4300, well there is less space on the down side after 1.4000. In the 4H chart I see the pair returning into the lower bollinger band, but still far away from EMA and middle BB, to confirm a possible return to 1.4300 we need this pair to go up to 1.4180 first;RSI is @ 38; the stochastic is for the upside; I probably will stay out of the market untill data are published;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4469; R2 1.4281; R1 1.4180; S1 1.3992; S2 1.3905; S3 1.3717;

No trading plan right now;

I have closed yesterday my two short positions;

I am scared of this fallen open interest, I was expecting the opposite;

I will follow the German unemployment data and I will act;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 29th

The pair is trading @ 1.4124; right now a bearish candle is on; yesterday after touch the high @ 1.4304 the pair went down to 1.4134; after that we had a retracement to to 1.4265 area and than to 1.4190 area and now it started it's way down again; today low was 1.4109 for the moment; as I did say yesterday, @ 1.4300 we probably have big seller of Eur/Usd; anyway today we have serious data release and so will be decided if for this [pair there is more space on the upside or the way back to 1.2500 will start today.

In the 4H chart considering the last clear movement (1.3823-1.4304) the pair is retraced 38% and this mean that it is probably gaining strange to pass the 1.4300 resistance; on the other hand the pair is trading below yesterday min and so it may follow down; 1.4050 may indicate the possibility of a new bearish trend start, so be really careful in that area if you hold a long position; right now the pair is trading below the lower bollinger band, so below the EMA, the RSI is @ 37 and the stochastic need a break, so a small correction, before a huge bearish movement (?). Today we are waiting for the German CPI, it is expected lower than last time (be really careful with this indicator); on the other side of the pair we have "Core durable goods orders m/m and later the beige book (do not ignore the last one, it may start a new trend, and it did in the past). So we have a day where everything may happen or just nothing and we'll continue ranging.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4531; R2 1.4361; R1 1,4249; S1 1.4079; S2 1.4021; S3 1.3851;

My trading plan:

YOU should be short since yesterday;

I am short two units ( I shorted a second one @1.4167)

I will stay short waiting for 1.4134 to be break or not; we went lower today, but right now we are trading @ 1.4143...

take profit @ 1.4170

target 1.4050, and there the big decision: lower or back?

keep an eye on today data release.

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 28th

The pair is trading @ 1.4273; yesterday it went down to 1.4170 and than up to 1.4297; after the high the pair went down for a correction and now is ready to go to test 1.4300 again; the open interest was down yesterday. In the 4H chart I see the RSI @ 60; the stochastic is moving up; the pair is trading over the EMA and in the upper bollinger band, by the way yesterday the pair have been unable to cross the middle bollinger band vs the downside; the pair is quite strong and is bullish, but the problem will be 1.4300: in three occasions in the last week the pair was rejected down after approaching 1.4300. For sure an open interest down means that for every bear closing is position taking losses there is a bull that close also is position taking profit.

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4501; R2 1.4374; R1 1.4323; S1 1.4196; S2 1.4120; S3 1.3993.

My trading plan:

if a new bull will happened this mean that the pair will test successfully 1.4300 and 1.4337;

I will sell right now @ 1.4286;

stop loss @ 1.4340 (or when I think a new high is made and confirmed)

take profit @ 1.4150 or lower.

My idea is that there is no more space for a bullish action, and if 1.4300 will be failed again the pair may retrace more than last few times, probably will approach 1.4000;

have a good trading day

:D

EUR/USD July 27th

The pair is trading @ 1.4253; last Friday the pair started low @ 1.4134; to end high @ 1.4250 area; than we had a retracement and we went at 1.4250 area this morning again. As the pair went up last Friday the OI didn't the same, it was up only 3k; probably this mean that for this pair there is no more upside; in the 4H chart the pair is trading in the high bollinger band and over the EMA; the two EMA (short and longer period) have converged and this let me think that if the pair will go down to 1.42 in the next couple of hours, a bigger movement down may happen; the RSI is @ 58; the stochastic is indicating that the pair is going up, but now need a break or strong movement up;

here are some support and resistance:

R3 1.4444; R2 1.4328; R1 1.4291; S1 1.4175; S2 1.4096; S3 1.3980;

my trading plan:

sell now @ 1.4245 (if you think that will never happened another bullish movement on this pair);

stop loss @ 1.4328;

target 1.4150 or lower;

If this was a bet there are more possibilities that the pair will go down than it will stop it's ranging period (2 month now).

have a good trading day

:D