Eur/Usd Feb 25th

The pair is trading @ 1.3831, yesterday it went from 1.3703 to 1.3837; the reason should be that the dollar it's not a low risk investment anymore, since investor prefer swissy or Japanese yes; on the other side it looks also clear that the ECB will hike the interest rate much earlier than the FED. No comment on this. In Libya the situation is really bad right now, yesterday we saw the oil going up, almost to 120$ and than going back and closing the day basically unchanged form one day before...not sure about the reason of that, to me was clear that was going up and should have gone higher. For sure there is a lot of volatility.
This morning I am reading that Morgan Stanley is cutting it's forecast for the dollar and so it is putting it's eurusd forecast for end of march @ 1.32 from 1.25 and end of year @ 1.24 from 1.20...so we are overstated according to MS.

Technically we are trading on the upper bollinger band and the pair is bullish and closed up last three session, also if I believe the resistance @ 1.3860 will not be broken. In the last three days the pair closed higher, but never gained a consistent amount of pips to say there was a consistent movement.
 
Today econ stats include German preliminary CPI, french consumer spending and M3 money supply, from US preliminary GDP, which should not give nay surprises.
 
Here are some support and resistance:

R4 1.4189; R3 1.4056; R2 1.3923; R1 1.3877; S1 1.3744; S2 1.3657; S3 1.3524; S4 1.3391.

 
I will try again to go short,
selling now
stop loss 1.3877 (so risk less than 50 pips)
target 1.3744 and if there are some good econ stats will play 1.3657.
 
Happy trading

Eur/Usd Feb 24th

The pair is trading around 1.3735 and is falling down since the last hour. Yesterday it went from 1.3682 to 1.3785 to close @ 1.3775.
The main argument that explain the rise of the Euro against the dollar is that the north Africa crisis will boost energy prices, especially the Brent and so will impact on the European inflation. Now because for the ECB is mandatory to keep inflation below 2% they will increase the interest rate to contain the inflation.
My point is that inflation from a problem on the supply side is not the same as inflation from strong demand due to an excess of liquidity. I am not sure what is more important between containing the inflation and not killing the demand or the grow. Increasing the interest rate will have an effect on the inflation only reducing the demand and killing the grow...I am sure nobody want it, as I am sure nobody will hike interest rate soon, just rumors.
The possible scenario about the Libyan crisis make clear that it will not be resolved soon unless Gaddafi step down, but He made clear that will not step down and prefer to die as a martyr, so let's assume that the libyan instability will be really long and energy prices will go further up.

Technically we are trading close to the upper bollinger band, but the RSI is declining. Yesterday the pair managed to go over the 1.3720-1.3750 area, considered an important resistance, but didn't go far away and right now is back at 1.3735. A return to 1.3710 may push the pair down to 1.3650-1.3635. while on the other side the resistance have to move up probably 1.3812? will see today.

Here are some support and resistance:

R4 1.4053; R3 1.3951; R2 1.3849; R1 1.3812; S1 1.371; S2 1.3645; S3 1.3543; S4 1.3441.

Today we will have the Core Durable Goods Order, Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales, so let's pay attention, the market will move for sure, and a bad news here will push the pair really high.

As the pair is moving down, I have sold here, and will close before the economic stats came out, unless I have enough pips to play the stats.

Happy trading

Eur/Usd Feb 23rd

The pair traded from 1.3526 to 1.3703 during yesterday. The main driver of the day were the Libyan unrest and a talk on a possible rate rise from ECB.
 So it happened that the euro went to touch his day low on Libya unrest, and than recovered something like 180 pips as some ECB officials start talking about the opportunity to rise interest rate to avoid inflation. I am not sure this is real, an increase of the interest rates now may affect negatively the so called PIGS. Gaddafi had a speech on TV and was a really aggressive one, as he stressed that will not step down, and prefer to die as a martyr.
 
Technically we are trading on the upper bollinger band and I see the RSI in overbought.
Right now we are trading @ 1.3722, it is a really interesting level, as I believe we have a strong resistance in this area up to 1.3750. If the market learn to trade the facts and avoid the rumors well it will go down to 1.3550 area again. On the other side a possible break over 1.3750 will target 1.4000 and 1.4270 will be next.
 
Here are some support and resistance:

R4 1.4207; R3 1.4019; R2 1.3831; R1 1.3762; S1 1.3574; S2 1.3455; S3 1.3267; S4 1.3079.

 
So I would sell here with a stop loss at 1.3762 (clear break of 1.3720-1.3750 area)
target 1.3574
 
Happy trading to everybody

Eur/Usd Feb 22nd

The Pair is currently trading around 1.3590, more or less 100 pips below yesterday morning at this time. I have never saw the eurusd moving 100 pips at midnight London time, interesting. The reason may be the fact that yesterday was a US holiday and so there was no enough liquidity to push the pair down, also if it was clear that with all the Libyan bad news it should have been down.
The other stories yesterday were the possibility for the euro-zone to increase the interest rate.
technically the pair is trading close to the low bollinger band, and is 50 pips away from last low.
if the Libyan situation will not end soon the pair should easily go to test 1.3400 support.
Here are some resistance and support:
R4 1.4059; R3 1.3913; R2 1.3767; R1 1.3679; S1 1.3533; S2 1.3475; S3 1.3329; S4 1.3183.

lafenice yesterday made money on his first trade, today I have no position on the moment, will follow close the day to spot some opportunity.

Happy trading everybody.

Eur/USD Feb 21st

The pair is unchanged to far in this start of the week. If we closed last week with some worries about the time the FED will increase it's interest rate, we are starting this week with some worries about the EU nations debt and their ability to face it.
Spanish debt yields have risen recently and this is a fact that will weight on the Euro during this week.
Today it is bank holiday in US but we have some stats from EUR: manufacturing and services PMI for French and Germany, plus the German Ifo Business climate.

Here are some support and resistance to watch today:
R4 1.4157; R3 1.3988; R2 1.3819; R1 1.3756; S1 1.3587; S2 1.3481; S3 1.3312; S4 1.3143.
I still believe that to have a confirmation of the Bull movement we need to break over area 1.3720-1.3750, I fix the first resistance at 1.3756;
while to see a bear momentum we need to break below 1.3587.
I will play the range during this week, as far as it will make sense.

right now "lafenice" account is not visible yet, but in the next 2-3 weeks it will be visible so you will be able to see my real time trades, or to link your account to mine, to trade in real time with me.

I have short @ 1.3681 with a target of 50 pips, also 50 pips stop loss.

Happy trading to all

EUR/USD 21-25/FEB

Hi all,
here I am, back.
the pair last week went from 1.3420 to 1.3720. Also if it was trading for most of the week between 1.3450 and 1.3550, during last few hours Friday it rallied 150 pips to close @ 1.3693.
Apparently the main reason for the rally was the perception that the FED will not increase the interest rate really soon, against the fact that the EU may do it due to an increasing inflation.

Here are some resistance and support point for next week:
R4 1.4511; R3 1.4211; R2 1.3911; R1 1.3802; S1 1.3502; S2 1.3311; S3 1.3011; S4 1.2711.
Clearly a fail in breaking 1.3720-1.3750 area will send the pair back to test the first support.

No strategies for today, but will show some really soon.
Good luck everybody.