Eur/Usd Feb 25th

The pair is trading @ 1.3831, yesterday it went from 1.3703 to 1.3837; the reason should be that the dollar it's not a low risk investment anymore, since investor prefer swissy or Japanese yes; on the other side it looks also clear that the ECB will hike the interest rate much earlier than the FED. No comment on this. In Libya the situation is really bad right now, yesterday we saw the oil going up, almost to 120$ and than going back and closing the day basically unchanged form one day before...not sure about the reason of that, to me was clear that was going up and should have gone higher. For sure there is a lot of volatility.
This morning I am reading that Morgan Stanley is cutting it's forecast for the dollar and so it is putting it's eurusd forecast for end of march @ 1.32 from 1.25 and end of year @ 1.24 from 1.20...so we are overstated according to MS.

Technically we are trading on the upper bollinger band and the pair is bullish and closed up last three session, also if I believe the resistance @ 1.3860 will not be broken. In the last three days the pair closed higher, but never gained a consistent amount of pips to say there was a consistent movement.
 
Today econ stats include German preliminary CPI, french consumer spending and M3 money supply, from US preliminary GDP, which should not give nay surprises.
 
Here are some support and resistance:

R4 1.4189; R3 1.4056; R2 1.3923; R1 1.3877; S1 1.3744; S2 1.3657; S3 1.3524; S4 1.3391.

 
I will try again to go short,
selling now
stop loss 1.3877 (so risk less than 50 pips)
target 1.3744 and if there are some good econ stats will play 1.3657.
 
Happy trading