After a movement up yesterday I was expecting a correction...a good one at least of 61.8% :)
didn't happend; but happend that the french prelim GDP is down better than expectation but worse than last time (just a little bit); but the German GDP is down 3.8%, 0.8 more than expectation and 1.7 more than last time; somebody may see the bottom of the recession, what I see is that I wouldn't buy any EUR/USD in light of such a bad data, the all euro area GDP should be affected;
there are still some important data today, but if I was long I would cover my position, and this is what I am expecting...last week the rate went up a lot and fast for a total of 400 pips, now I am expecting at least 240 pips down.
my target is 1.342; also is S2 is at 1.3478 ;)
some resistance and supports: R1 1.3688; R2 1.3742; S1 1.3556; S2 1.3478; S3 1.3346
here is my trading plan:
I will sell 3 unit of EUR/USD right now is 1.3601 (I am already long from yesterday since the rate didn't move over night) stop loss 1.3688;
I will sell 2 unit more @ 1.3558 stop loss 1.36;
I will sell 1 more unit @ 1.3478 stop loss 1.35;
I will buy back @ 1.3420 only or I will take decision right before US data came out.
this is a good opportunity today.
Have a good day trading
Friday, May 15, 2009
Thursday, May 14, 2009
EUR/USD after the unemployment claims data
After yesterday correction the EUR/USD rate was @ 1.3620 this morning; right before the data release it was down to 1.3533 (probably will be the min of today);
this movement may be seen as the possibility of some long position ready to cover...just in case;
the data was worst than the expectation, but somebody said: because of last week event, something occasional...not sure, maybe just a statistcal disturb;
anyway the PPI and the unemployment claims were clearly bullysh for the rate and that happend it went up to 1.3664 (probably the max of today);
tomorrow we expect some really important news from euro side and dollar side;
first in the morning the german GDP that account for almost half of all europe...it is expected to be down 3%...it was down 2.1%;
french GDP with german account 60% of all europe and later there will be also the italian one...
all the three are expected to be worse than last time; I am expecting a lot of nervosism right before the release of them; a worse than expected release may end in a violent bearish movement to 1.3420 or lower;
the morning will be completed with euro CPI release; this is expected to be better;
on US side 3 hour and half later will be released the CPI expected to be flat;
support and resistance at this point of the day: R1 1.3692; R2 1.3743; S1 1.3561; S2 1.3481
right now my expectation is that today movement will be correct before tomorrow morning probably per 61.8% @ 1.3591 to be clear;
here is my trading plan:
I will sell right now 3 unit of EUR/USD @ 1.3641; stop loss 1.3720
I will buy back one unit @ 1.3595;
I will buy back the second unit @ 1.3561;
I will leave the third unit in case of bigger bearish movement
have a good trading day :)
this movement may be seen as the possibility of some long position ready to cover...just in case;
the data was worst than the expectation, but somebody said: because of last week event, something occasional...not sure, maybe just a statistcal disturb;
anyway the PPI and the unemployment claims were clearly bullysh for the rate and that happend it went up to 1.3664 (probably the max of today);
tomorrow we expect some really important news from euro side and dollar side;
first in the morning the german GDP that account for almost half of all europe...it is expected to be down 3%...it was down 2.1%;
french GDP with german account 60% of all europe and later there will be also the italian one...
all the three are expected to be worse than last time; I am expecting a lot of nervosism right before the release of them; a worse than expected release may end in a violent bearish movement to 1.3420 or lower;
the morning will be completed with euro CPI release; this is expected to be better;
on US side 3 hour and half later will be released the CPI expected to be flat;
support and resistance at this point of the day: R1 1.3692; R2 1.3743; S1 1.3561; S2 1.3481
right now my expectation is that today movement will be correct before tomorrow morning probably per 61.8% @ 1.3591 to be clear;
here is my trading plan:
I will sell right now 3 unit of EUR/USD @ 1.3641; stop loss 1.3720
I will buy back one unit @ 1.3595;
I will buy back the second unit @ 1.3561;
I will leave the third unit in case of bigger bearish movement
have a good trading day :)
EUR/USD MAY 14 trade opportunity
EUR/USD right now is trading @ 1.3570; around 15 pips higher than yesterday minimum;
yesterday we had a perfect bearish day: high 1.3715; low 1.3526; at 1.3580 we had a ritracement of 61.8% @ 1.3655 to close than @ 1.3553.
In my opinion the rate is still overvalued, there is a lot of long position that is starting getting scared of it; today there will be lots of Data; If the Data about the unemployment claim will be not worse than expected I see the possibility of some long cover... that mean the rate may go down violently.
so here are some resistanse ans supports:R1 1.367; R2 1.3787; S1 1.3481; S2 1.3409; S3 1.322.
here is my trading plan of the day:
I will sell 2 unit of EUR/USD right now @ 1.3565 stop loss @ 1.3646 and I would close the position anyway if the US data will be worse than expected; I will bay back the first lot @ 1.3481 and the second @ 1.3409 at the 1st and 2nd support to be clear;
have a good trading
yesterday we had a perfect bearish day: high 1.3715; low 1.3526; at 1.3580 we had a ritracement of 61.8% @ 1.3655 to close than @ 1.3553.
In my opinion the rate is still overvalued, there is a lot of long position that is starting getting scared of it; today there will be lots of Data; If the Data about the unemployment claim will be not worse than expected I see the possibility of some long cover... that mean the rate may go down violently.
so here are some resistanse ans supports:R1 1.367; R2 1.3787; S1 1.3481; S2 1.3409; S3 1.322.
here is my trading plan of the day:
I will sell 2 unit of EUR/USD right now @ 1.3565 stop loss @ 1.3646 and I would close the position anyway if the US data will be worse than expected; I will bay back the first lot @ 1.3481 and the second @ 1.3409 at the 1st and 2nd support to be clear;
have a good trading
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
13/May EUR/USD opportunity update
The EUR/USD moved today from 1.3721 to 1.3569 so far;
today data are supporting a correction of the rate that last 5 days moved up over my expectation: I said 200 pips overvalued. To me looks like the rate will have a correction to 1.342
right now the EUR/USD is around 1.3592;
in my vision the first support is 1.3569; a break of it would push the rate down to:
s1 1.3533; s2 1.3453; s3 1.3323; r1 1.3685; r2 1.3779...I would say 1.3721;
here is my plan:
I will sell 1 unit right now @ 1.3592and @ 1.3650 I will sell one unit; stop loss @ 1.3690; take profit @1.3569 for the first unit and 1.3533 for the second
have a good trade ;)
today data are supporting a correction of the rate that last 5 days moved up over my expectation: I said 200 pips overvalued. To me looks like the rate will have a correction to 1.342
right now the EUR/USD is around 1.3592;
in my vision the first support is 1.3569; a break of it would push the rate down to:
s1 1.3533; s2 1.3453; s3 1.3323; r1 1.3685; r2 1.3779...I would say 1.3721;
here is my plan:
I will sell 1 unit right now @ 1.3592and @ 1.3650 I will sell one unit; stop loss @ 1.3690; take profit @1.3569 for the first unit and 1.3533 for the second
have a good trade ;)
EUR/USD today opportunity
Since thursday the euro has been stronger than my expetation vs the euro;
I think a "correction" of about 200 pips will happend, but when?
Yesterday after US trade balance data there was a tendence to recover vs the euro from the dollar;right now that recovery is zero; euro/usd is trading at 1.3693;
if French CPI and EU industrial production will be not better than the forecast I see an opportunity to sell EUR/USD with a target 1.3600;
if we will have also a not worse than expected data from US I think is the day where at least part of the 200 pips overvalued will be recovered...
for today I will sell 2 unit of eur/usd @ 1.37 (right now) I will buy back @ 1 unit @ 1.3600 and 1 unit @ 1.3560; stop loss @1.3740;have a good trading
I think a "correction" of about 200 pips will happend, but when?
Yesterday after US trade balance data there was a tendence to recover vs the euro from the dollar;right now that recovery is zero; euro/usd is trading at 1.3693;
if French CPI and EU industrial production will be not better than the forecast I see an opportunity to sell EUR/USD with a target 1.3600;
if we will have also a not worse than expected data from US I think is the day where at least part of the 200 pips overvalued will be recovered...
for today I will sell 2 unit of eur/usd @ 1.37 (right now) I will buy back @ 1 unit @ 1.3600 and 1 unit @ 1.3560; stop loss @1.3740;have a good trading
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