Friday, May 15, 2009

EUR/USD in light of the German preliminary GDP

After a movement up yesterday I was expecting a correction...a good one at least of 61.8% :)
didn't happend; but happend that the french prelim GDP is down better than expectation but worse than last time (just a little bit); but the German GDP is down 3.8%, 0.8 more than expectation and 1.7 more than last time; somebody may see the bottom of the recession, what I see is that I wouldn't buy any EUR/USD in light of such a bad data, the all euro area GDP should be affected;
there are still some important data today, but if I was long I would cover my position, and this is what I am expecting...last week the rate went up a lot and fast for a total of 400 pips, now I am expecting at least 240 pips down.

my target is 1.342; also is S2 is at 1.3478 ;)
some resistance and supports: R1 1.3688; R2 1.3742; S1 1.3556; S2 1.3478; S3 1.3346

here is my trading plan:
I will sell 3 unit of EUR/USD right now is 1.3601 (I am already long from yesterday since the rate didn't move over night) stop loss 1.3688;
I will sell 2 unit more @ 1.3558 stop loss 1.36;
I will sell 1 more unit @ 1.3478 stop loss 1.35;
I will buy back @ 1.3420 only or I will take decision right before US data came out.

this is a good opportunity today.

Have a good day trading

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