EUR/USD is trading in 1.400 area; yesterday high1.3982; low 1.3782; it moved for 200 pips and never went to 1.4000; next target is going to be 1.4050, and next may happen a bullish movement up; or a failing to move on the upside after 1.4000 may bring the rate down for another correction to 1.3850 area; to be clear it failed once @ 1.4040 to follow on the upside and now after a week is there again...another fail would create a double high and a potential reverse pattern;
the only opportunity I see is in short position, but it may be painful;
here are some resistance and support:
R3 1.4321; R2 1.4121; R1 1.4061; S1 1.3861; S2 1.3721; S3 1.3521;
my trading plan:
I will sell 1x unit right now @ 1.4007;
stop loss 1.4070;
take profit @ 1.3861
GBP/USD is trading @ 1.6042; yesterday high 1.6016; low 1.5853; this pair looks stronger than EUR/USD, but right now the RSI is @ 70 after it was higher cinse yesterday and it is trading next to the upper bollinger band; so a "calm down" to 1.6000 area will be needed; also in this case if the rate goes up it will meet a huge resistance in 1.6080 if it want to retrace it will be 1.5850 area; so I think would be better to play that way;
here some support and resistance:
R3 1.6296; R2 1.6133; R1 1.6086; S1 1.5923; S2 1.5807; S3 1.5644
this is my trading plan:
I will sell 1x unit now @ 1.6048;
stop loss 1.6090;
take profit in area 1.5850.
both the pair may break the 1st resistance and go up; but to me, clearly, looks to risky the upside, since it may take a 40 pips, I would say that the probability they rally for 200 pips today is low; in case of a correction and a long position the stop loss should be placed in 1.5800 area...I do not see a long strategy so convenient as a short one; anyway if You have guts may be your day.
have a good trading day
:D
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
EUR/USD May 28Th
The pair is trading right now @ 1.3820; yesterday low 1.3823; high 1.3999 (please note this);
So it failed to break definitively 1.40 area and retraced down to 1.3800 area this early morning;
today we are going to know some news: German unemployment change and US unemployment claim; among the others these two are the most important to me;
the German is expected worst; so I think the pair will go down until it's publication; if this news will be not better than expected I see EUR/USD at 1.3720 area right before the US unemployment claims; If this will be not worst than expected I will sell more EUR/USD otherwise I will cover all my short positions;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.429; R2 1.4060; R1 1.3943; S1 1.3764; S2 1.3702; S3 1.3523
this is my trading plan:
I am short 1x unit EUR/USD since yesterday
stop loss down to 1.3864 (my expectation is that the rate will not go over 1.3855 today)
today I will sell 1x unit now @ 1.3834;
stop loss 1.3864
target 1.3700 area;
have a good trading day
:D
So it failed to break definitively 1.40 area and retraced down to 1.3800 area this early morning;
today we are going to know some news: German unemployment change and US unemployment claim; among the others these two are the most important to me;
the German is expected worst; so I think the pair will go down until it's publication; if this news will be not better than expected I see EUR/USD at 1.3720 area right before the US unemployment claims; If this will be not worst than expected I will sell more EUR/USD otherwise I will cover all my short positions;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.429; R2 1.4060; R1 1.3943; S1 1.3764; S2 1.3702; S3 1.3523
this is my trading plan:
I am short 1x unit EUR/USD since yesterday
stop loss down to 1.3864 (my expectation is that the rate will not go over 1.3855 today)
today I will sell 1x unit now @ 1.3834;
stop loss 1.3864
target 1.3700 area;
have a good trading day
:D
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
EUR/USD and GBP/USD May 27th
EUR/USD is trading @ 1.3950 area; yesterday it failed to break 1.4000 area and retraced to 1.3850 area; today is the day where it can go up and break 1.40 or it will retrace down to 1.3850 and than down to 1.3720 area;
at this point I would bet on a fail to continue the bullish trend; the RSI (15min chart) right now is flat at 51; the rate went down 50 percent of yesterday up movement and right now should attempting area 1.4000;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4281; R2 1.4118; R1 1.4051; S1 1.3888; S2 1.3792; S3 1.3629
my trading plan here is:
I will sell 1x unit right now @ 1.3966;
stop loss @ 1.4051;
target area 1.3850
GBP/USD is trading @ 1.5987; yesterday it didn't move at all; this morning went down to 1.5926 and up to 1.59999999 ,it is a joke I think it just touched 1.6000;
I do not think we have a good macroeconomic support to justify the continuation of the bullish momentum; to be clear I do not see the rate @ 1.65 right now it will look to much distorted;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.6274; R21.6082; R1 1.6003; S1 1.5811; S2 1.5698; S3 1.5314
here is my trading plan:
I will sell now 1x unit @ 1.5986;
stop loss @ 1.6030(it is just 44 pips);
target 1.58 area
have a good trading day
:D
at this point I would bet on a fail to continue the bullish trend; the RSI (15min chart) right now is flat at 51; the rate went down 50 percent of yesterday up movement and right now should attempting area 1.4000;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4281; R2 1.4118; R1 1.4051; S1 1.3888; S2 1.3792; S3 1.3629
my trading plan here is:
I will sell 1x unit right now @ 1.3966;
stop loss @ 1.4051;
target area 1.3850
GBP/USD is trading @ 1.5987; yesterday it didn't move at all; this morning went down to 1.5926 and up to 1.59999999 ,it is a joke I think it just touched 1.6000;
I do not think we have a good macroeconomic support to justify the continuation of the bullish momentum; to be clear I do not see the rate @ 1.65 right now it will look to much distorted;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.6274; R21.6082; R1 1.6003; S1 1.5811; S2 1.5698; S3 1.5314
here is my trading plan:
I will sell now 1x unit @ 1.5986;
stop loss @ 1.6030(it is just 44 pips);
target 1.58 area
have a good trading day
:D
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
EUR/USD May 26th-27th
Right now it is trading @ 1.3994; today high 1.4022; low 1.3859;
it is 3x biz days now, that the rate try to break the resistance at 1.4000 area;
a first look at the volumes says that the volume goes down as 1.4000 is approached;
the trend is still bullish; but I see a huge resistance @ 1.4035 right now;
looks like the bull are not that strong, and the bear may came out;
for sure is the pair will fail again to break 1.4000,as it looks it is happening, it should retrace at least to 1.3720 area again;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4283; R2 1.4120; R1 1.4055; S1 1.3892; S2 1.3794; S3 1.3631
here is my trading plan:
I will sell 2x unit now @ 1.3987;
stop loss @ 1.4040;
target: 1.38 area and 1.3720 area;
have a good trading
:D
it is 3x biz days now, that the rate try to break the resistance at 1.4000 area;
a first look at the volumes says that the volume goes down as 1.4000 is approached;
the trend is still bullish; but I see a huge resistance @ 1.4035 right now;
looks like the bull are not that strong, and the bear may came out;
for sure is the pair will fail again to break 1.4000,as it looks it is happening, it should retrace at least to 1.3720 area again;
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4283; R2 1.4120; R1 1.4055; S1 1.3892; S2 1.3794; S3 1.3631
here is my trading plan:
I will sell 2x unit now @ 1.3987;
stop loss @ 1.4040;
target: 1.38 area and 1.3720 area;
have a good trading
:D
GBP/USD May 26th
GBP/USD right now it is mailto:trading@1.5872; it went down to 1.5860 yesterday; but still hasn't touched 1.6000;
ok last thursday we had a first attempt; but we know it was an holiday in big part of Europe and so thin volumes; friday there was a second one and again a fail; yesterday again down to 1.5848 and up...not really up; during the night down to 1.5860 and up and down;
I am confused; if it wasn't for the two holidays we had I would say that the dollars bears are not strong enough; also against the Euro the dollar is resisting @ 1.4000 area; it was passed, but it was below right after;
Now the last 3x biz days the volume was low and we should consider it;
I think that if today we will see another attempt to break 1.6000 first we should see a correction to 1.5831 area or 1.5808 or 73% of the range was created after the first failing attack to 1.6000;
I do not see any pivot point...resistance @1.5940;
good support @ 1.5750 area, in case it will be breaked we can experiment a violent retracement to 1.5500 area; I would suggest to be really carefull today.
here is my trading plan:
I will buy 1x unit of GBP/USD now @ 1.5854;
I will buy 1x unit of GBP/USD @ 1.5831, if it goes so low;
stop loss per both @ 1.5750 to be moved maybe few pips if the situation suggest it...maybe;
target 1.6000 and over;
if it will fail also today to break 1.6000 I may turn into bear;
ok last thursday we had a first attempt; but we know it was an holiday in big part of Europe and so thin volumes; friday there was a second one and again a fail; yesterday again down to 1.5848 and up...not really up; during the night down to 1.5860 and up and down;
I am confused; if it wasn't for the two holidays we had I would say that the dollars bears are not strong enough; also against the Euro the dollar is resisting @ 1.4000 area; it was passed, but it was below right after;
Now the last 3x biz days the volume was low and we should consider it;
I think that if today we will see another attempt to break 1.6000 first we should see a correction to 1.5831 area or 1.5808 or 73% of the range was created after the first failing attack to 1.6000;
I do not see any pivot point...resistance @1.5940;
good support @ 1.5750 area, in case it will be breaked we can experiment a violent retracement to 1.5500 area; I would suggest to be really carefull today.
here is my trading plan:
I will buy 1x unit of GBP/USD now @ 1.5854;
I will buy 1x unit of GBP/USD @ 1.5831, if it goes so low;
stop loss per both @ 1.5750 to be moved maybe few pips if the situation suggest it...maybe;
target 1.6000 and over;
if it will fail also today to break 1.6000 I may turn into bear;
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