Friday, July 31, 2009

EUR/USD July 31th


The pair is trading @ 1.4121; yesterday it went from 1.4007 to 1.4080 area, to go higher during the night to 1.4145; if there were not so many bears for a down trend; we made sure that there was no more space on the up side after 1.4300; so here we are, in the middle. Today we have some important data release, in a couple of hour we have the German CPI y/y, expected lower, and unemployment rate expected higher; later for the $ we have a GDP data, the rest should not influence any direction; one good news for the bears: the open interest yesterday was down around 10%... so yesterday movement up was not supported; In the 4H chart I see the pair approaching the mid of the bollinger bands, with a bearish candle starting exactly from the mid;the stochastic need a correction down, and the RSI is @ 47; the pair is trading below the EMA; the all picture is for a bearish continuation after yesterday retracement, but keep an eye on today data release.
here are some support and resistance:
R3 1.4369; R2 1.4230; R1 1.4175; S1 1.4036; S2 1.3952; S3 1.3813;
my trading plan;
sell 1x unit now @ 1.4117;
stop loss 1.4180-1.4200 (better to wait for same data before decide it, the variance may increase as data are released)
target 1.3975 or below.
have a good trading day
:D

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