The pair is trading @ 1.4532; during last session it went up to 1.4635, and than down to 1.4570; this week it open up to 1.4600 but it is already retracing down. What happened is that Thursday 7th after a data on US employment the market first went down and after a couple of hours it started a bullish period that in the case of EUR/USD lasted 400 pips; that data was negative, but better than the previous, so looks like the market started thinking positive...the real cause that pushed the dollar so low was the risk taking, trader see the market might go up, so this mean that they short dollars and invest into other currency such as EURO. Today Eur industrial production and Employment change will be published, so traders are scared of bad data, that is why so early in the morning the pair is going down; This is a good opportunity for short to get out if it will be needed. In my case I might short the pair right now (I just did); My opinion is that the equities market did run too much last week and now some adjustment on the down side will be made; The oil market is going down it is @68-something.
On the 4H chart the pair is trading in the lower bollinger band, it crossed the faster EMA and is approaching the slower EMA; The RSI is @ 51 and the stochastic is quite depressed;from it's high the pair retraced only 23% (so pay attention because it might be a good starting point for a further bullish movement, never forget stop loss); the Variance is diminished.
here are some resistance and support:
R3 1.4709; R2 1.4644; R1 1.4588; S1 1.4523; S2 1.4514; S3 1.4449.
my trading plan:
short 1x unit @ 1.4531;
stop loss @ 1.4588;
target 1.4300 area.
the assumption is that the retracement will create a new ranging area between 1.4630 and 1.4200. Pay attention to fix stop loss, since the market is quite irrational and it might go up to 1.5000.
have a good trading day